HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
NOVEMBER 30, 2013
by Dick Powell
One thing you have to say about the last race meet being run at Hollywood
Park is that you would never guess its lame duck status by watching the races.
All appears to be normal and this weekend’s Turf Festival is proof positive.
On Saturday, two-year-old turf horses will be in action. The boys will be in
action in race two with the Generous (G3), going a mile on the lawn. It only
attracted a field of six but we might get to see some future stars.
He’s never raced on turf but Pablo Del Monte (Giant’s Causeway) has done
nothing wrong in two starts on synthetic tracks for Wesley Ward. He broke his
maiden by five lengths first time out last April going 4 1/2 furlongs at
Keeneland and then went to the sidelines for six months.
The chestnut colt returned to the races at Keeneland and beat allowance foes
by over seven lengths on the synthetic going 6 1/2 furlongs. His workout pattern
has been sporadic but you can trust that Ward has this one ready.
Since his last race, ownership has changed hands to the powerful partners
that represent Coolmore and now they try graded stakes company on the turf. By
Giant’s Causeway (9 percent debut turf winners), he is out of a dam by Bring the
Heat (19 percent debut turf winners) that not only won her career debut but set
the still-standing track record at Keeneland going 4 1/2 furlongs.
At the moment, there is no black type under the first two dams but Ward bred
this colt and he took a shot at breeding her to a top sire that stood for
$85,000 when she was bred. She has, like her mother, brilliant speed and she
should be winging from the start with Kent Desormeaux back aboard.
Tom Proctor is always dangerous on the turf and he sends out Global View
(Galileo). He showed little in his career debut going 5 1/2 furlongs on the
synthetic track at Del Mar then romped in his turf debut going about 6 1/2
furlongs on the downhill course at Santa Anita. He showed the ability to pass
horses, which he will need to do today.
By the world’s leading sire, Galileo (14 percent debut turf winners), he is
out of a dam by Storm Cat (18 percent debut turf winners) that is a half-sister
to A.P. Warrior, who won a Grade 2 stakes on the turf at Del Mar going two
turns. He should have no trouble getting two turns but will have to have his
running shoes on to run down Pablo Del Monte.
One issue to note in both two-year-old turf stakes is that the horses that
ran in the Breeders’ Cup, where Lasix is prohibited for juveniles, are not
listed as racing on Lasix in here. I can’t imagine that they will not run on
Lasix but it is not in the past performances so pay attention to the changes
announced early in the day.
The juvenile fillies race in the Miesque (G3) going the same one-mile
distance. A field of six is entered and it’s a shame that we don’t have one race
with a 12-horse field.
That said, the Miesque might not have runners that live up to her stellar
reputation but some hard-knocking youngsters. Clenor (Oratorio) makes her eighth
start of the season with the first three coming in Ireland. She was Group
3-placed in her third career start then shipped to Del Mar where she broke her
maiden coming from far back to win going away at a mile.
She came back there to win a stakes race going a mile in very fast time then
won a similar stakes race at Santa Anita at the same distance. She was beaten
over five lengths in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) when she could
not get over to the inside from post ten and raced wide every step.
The daughter of Oratorio (12 percent turf winners) is out of a dam by Royal
Academy (12 percent turf winners) that has produced two stakes-placed winners on
the turf. Joe Talamo rides back for Doug O’Neill.
The horse she will have to beat looks to be Jim Cassidy’s Full Ransom (Full
Mandate). She raced evenly in her career debut on the synthetic track at Del Mar
then came back six weeks later to go gate to wire on the turf at Santa Anita. He
might not have the greatest turf pedigree but he has dangerous early speed and a
win at the distance.
On Sunday, the Matriarch (G1) will be run for the 33rd and final time. The
Grade 1 stakes for fillies and mares going a mile on the turf attracted a field
of nine and the lukewarm favorite might be TIZ FLIRTATIOUS (Tiz Wonderful). She
won the Rodeo Drive (G1) at Santa Anita going ten furlongs then was beaten two
lengths in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1) when she ran into some
traffic before the top of the stretch.
She’s won going a mile and should have a devastating stretch kick over
Hollywood Park’s long homestretch. Joel Rosario picks up the mount for Marty
Jones.
Three-year-olds have done well in the Matriarch with three of the last seven
runnings going to the youngsters. Discreet Marq (Discreet Cat) represents the
class of 2010 very well and has already shown she can ship cross country and
bring her A game. She won the Del Mar Oaks (G1) coming from just off the pace
going nine furlongs then prepped for this with a good win last out going a mile.
She’s versatile in that she can run on or off the pace and from post 2, I expect
Rafael Bejarano to use her good speed to gain prominent position into the first
turn.
Dayatthespa (City Zip) is a New York-bred that continues to run well against
open company. She won the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) last year at
Keeneland before shipping here to be beaten four lengths in this race and now
shows up off a narrow loss on a yielding course at Keeneland in the First Lady
(G1). Javier Castellano rides back for Chad Brown — 28 percent together.
The Hollywood Derby (G1) will be run at ten furlongs for sophomore and this
year’s running attracted 10 runners. The most accomplished of them appears to be
Admiral Kitten (Kitten’s Joy) who won the Secretariat (G1) going this distance
at Arlington Park this summer.
A one-dimensional closer, he has a potent late kick and should love the long
stretch in here. He’s run well on firm turf and makes his second start off the
layoff here.
Six of the runners in the Twilight Derby (G2) last month come back here to
contest the ten-furlong event. Rookie Sensation (Unbridled’s Song) was the upset
winner that day at 8-1 and he looks like he could be tough again. With only five
starts in his career, the last three coming on turf, another win here would set
him up to be one of next year’s major forces in the turf division.
Rookie Sensation is trained by John Shirreffs for the Stronach Stable. He has
a terrific pedigree being by Unbridled’s Song (14 percent turf winners) out of a
dam by Stately Don (8 percent turf winners) that was a stakes winner and course
record holder on Laurel’s turf course going 1 3/16 miles. She has produced seven
winners from seven foals to race including three turf stakes winners.
Gervinho (Unusual Heat) just missed with a second in the Del Mar Derby (G2)
two starts back going nine furlongs in good time then came back at Santa Anita
with a good third in the Twilight Derby. He’s only had four starts this year so
he shows up here fresh, fit and dangerous for Carla Gaines.
Seek Again (Speightstown) doesn’t have the form that many Juddmonte Farms’
shippers to America usually have but they have a strong record with their turf
shippers to the west coast. This colt has yet to try group company but his races
against high-level handicap foes is strong. His dam won the Beverly Hills
Handicap (G2) on this course.