ROAD TO THE TRIPLE CROWN
APRIL 26, 2006
by James Scully
SHOWING UP (Strategic Mission) didn’t disappoint in Saturday’s Lexington S.
(G2), rallying from off the pace for the first time in his brief racing career
to win going away by 1 1/4 lengths, and the lightly raced colt remains a very
promising three-year-old. Now three for three overall, the Barclay Tagg trainee
appears headed to the Kentucky Derby (G1), where he would be joined by another
unbeaten stablemate, Barbaro (Dynaformer), but a minor leg puncture could still
derail those plans.
Tagg said he still hopes to make the Derby, but it wouldn’t be the worst
thing to see Showing Up miss the event. He has only three races to his credit,
making his first start on February 11, and didn’t finish fast in the Lexington,
drifting in late and receiving only a 96 BRIS Speed rating. That number doesn’t
bode well for his chances in the Derby, and Showing Up has never been farther
than 1 1/16 miles. The Derby will be a completely different ballgame for the
inexperienced colt.
On the plus side, the small but athletic runner has plenty of room for
improvement and may be able to negotiate trouble well in a large field next
time. He earned the chance to test the Triple Crown waters, but his owners
already have their main Derby horse. Showing Up would have extra time to prepare
for the Preakness (G1) and catch most of his rivals coming off a difficult race
at Churchill Downs. That strategy paid off for the connections of Red Bullet in
2000.
Lexington runner-up LIKE NOW (Jules) will skip the Derby and point toward the
Preakness, and the speedster held gamely despite repeated challenges on
Saturday. Third placer BEAR CHARACTER (Dixie Union) didn’t exactly flatter the
top two as the longest shot on the board, but the multiple Canadian stakes
winner has improved since stretching out to two turns two starts back.
The Kentucky Derby draw is next Wednesday, and the Road to the Triple
Crown will run in Thursday’s newsletter. Listed below are profiles of the Kentucky Derby
contenders:
A.P. Warrior — Looking for another Giacomo (Holy Bull) this year? A.P. WARRIOR (A.P.
Indy) won’t be 50-1, but he’s got a chance to run big at long odds. Bred to
relish the 1 1/4-mile distance, he’s trained by last year’s Derby winner, John Shirreffs, and jockey Corey Nakatani is hungry for his first Derby win (last
five runnings of the Derby have been captured by first-time winners). As for the
colt’s form, his effort in December’s Hollywood Futurity (G1) and his first
start this year were both terrible as he refused to rate and fought his jockey early before quitting,
but the dark bay finally showed signs of maturity and turned the corner in
March’s San Felipe S. (G2), rallying from sixth on the backstretch to earn his
first stakes score and a career best 101 BRIS Speed rating. There was no pace
last time in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), forcing Nakatani to chase Brother Derek
(Benchmark) in second before tiring late, but that won’t be a problem in the
Kentucky Derby. A.P. Warrior doesn’t own the flashy credentials of his main
rivals and may have issues dealing with the raucous environment at Churchill
Downs, but the Grade 2 winner is talented. It’s not impossible to envision him
launching a rally from midpack.
Barbaro — Unbeaten Florida Derby (G1) winner initially established his
reputation on grass, winning his first three starts impressively, and made a
seamless transition to the main track when capturing the Holy Bull S. (G3) over
a sloppy oval on February 4. BARBARO (Dynaformer) trained up to the April 1
Florida Derby and received his first serious test, digging in gamely to
outfinish a brave Sharp Humor (Distorted Humor) in deep stretch. There’s plenty
to like about him — all Barbaro does is win — and trainer Michael Matz
believes the dark bay colt will have enough bottom to win at 1 1/4 miles.
Barbaro has the pedigree to win at the distance and may be good enough to answer
all of the questions, but he will bring an unconventional approach into the race
with only one prep in the previous 13 weeks. There’s also his running style: he’s
never been worse than second at any point of call and this year’s field is
loaded with early speed. Barbaro isn’t your typical top contender.
Bluegrass Cat — Ended last year on a strong note, posting wins in the
Remsen S. (G2) and Nashua S. (G3) after breaking his maiden in late September,
but BLUEGRASS CAT (Storm Cat) hasn’t lived up to expectations at three, losing
the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) at 2-5 before finishing a well-beaten fourth in the
Blue Grass S. (G1). Still, he’s had an excuse in his last two (threw a shoe on the
turn at Tampa and didn’t handle the quirky track at Keeneland) and trainer Todd Pletcher loves the way he’s training at Churchill Downs. This was John
Velazquez’s Derby horse all year (Ramon Dominguez will replace the injured
rider) and perhaps Bluegrass Cat will finally live up to his advance billing,
but his form this year isn’t encouraging.
Bob and John — Jockey Garrett Gomez stays with the Wood Memorial (G1)
winner, instead of runaway Blue Grass S. (G1) hero Sinister Minister (Old
Trieste), and trainer Bob Baffert made a good decision getting BOB AND JOHN
(Seeking the Gold) out of California (away from Brother Derek [Benchmark])
for his final prep race. That decision could reap dividends on May 6 if Bob and
John continues to improve, but the dark bay will need to carve out a trip —
his forwardly placed run style is a concern given the preponderance of speed in
the field. Critics have harped on the slow finish in the Wood Memorial, but he’s
earned big Speed ratings before (106 in his Sham S. [G3] win) and eased up late over
the tiring wet track after putting away Keyed Entry (Honour and Glory). Don’t
overlook the fact that he’s won three of his last four starts, the lone blemish
coming when fourth following a troubled trip in the San Felipe (G2), but he
still offered a decent rally wide that day. Bob and John
will be tested for class, but he’s got a chance if he can relax early.
Brother Derek — Likely Derby favorite rolled to an easy 3 1/4-length win in the
Santa Anita Derby (G1) and appears to have plenty left in the tank following
three authoritative victories in Southern California this year. Five for five
around two turns, BROTHER DEREK (Benchmark) has been handled superbly by Dan
Hendricks and owns excellent BRIS Speed ratings. He rated early when capturing
the Santa Catalina S. (G2) two starts back, but everybody wants to know whether
Brother Derek will sit patiently in the Kentucky Derby while Sinister Minister
(Old Trieste), Sharp Humor (Distorted Humor) and other speed merchants mix it up
on the front end. That’s asking a lot from the front-running California-bred,
but Brother Derek certainly looks good enough to prevail if he can manage to
find a comfortable spot before pouncing.
Cause to Believe — Late runners are an enticing option in this year’s
speed-laden Derby field, and CAUSE TO BELIEVE (Maria’s Mon) fits the bill. He’s
by Maria’s Mon, who sired Monarchos to a last-to-first victory in the 2001
Derby, and Cause to Believe will be coming from the clouds on May 6. A
back-to-back stakes winner in Northern California earlier this year, the Jerry
Hollendorfer charge exits a disappointing third in the Illinois Derby (G2),
leading to class concerns at this level, but we’ve seen plenty of Derby winners
rebound off a subpar performance in their final prep race. Cause to Believe
won’t bring the best Speed numbers into the race and has never won past 1 1/16
miles, so it won’t be surprising to see him not fire, but the five-time stakes
conqueror remains an interesting dark horse with his run style (triple-digit Late
Pace ratings in last five starts).
Deputy Glitters — Exits a dreadful sixth in the Wood Memorial (G1), and his
only quality efforts have come at Tampa Bay Downs and in a maiden claiming race.
Connections stated that he didn’t like a wet track before the Wood but still
ran him, and they probably know that the Kentucky Derby isn’t the best place for
him. DEPUTY GLITTERS (Deputy Commander) has never won past 1 1/16 miles, owns
mostly lower Speed ratings, and does his best running on the front end.
Flashy Bull — Currently 21st on the graded earnings list, maiden winner ran
poorly in the Florida Derby (G1) last out and probably doesn’t want any part of
10 furlongs. The one-paced FLASHY BULL (Holy Bull) has done nothing in three
starts this year to suggest he’ll leap forward on Derby Day.
Jazil — A rain dance is appropriate for this lightly raced colt. JAZIL
(Seeking the Gold) broke his maiden at Aqueduct in December and finished second
to the promising Corinthian (Pulpit) when making his three-year-old bow in a
Gulfstream allowance. He experienced a rough trip and didn’t fire in his stakes
debut, the Fountain of Youth (G2), but delivered a career best with a stout late
rally in the Wood Memorial (G1), making up a ton of ground through the
stretch to be second over the wet track. He earned a 101 Speed and 114 Late Pace
rating, but you have to wonder whether Jazil can step up with a monster effort
in the Kentucky Derby. That appears unlikely, but the bay colt is headed in the
right direction for the dangerous Kiaran McLaughlin. He’s more likely a candidate to
come running late for a minor award.
Keyed Entry — Grade 2 winner will receive a jockey change to Patrick
Valenzuela and owns triple-digit BRIS Speed ratings in all four starts this
year, including a 112 when winning the Hutcheson S. (G2) over sloppy going, but it’s difficult to get excited about his chances.
KEYED ENTRY (Honour and Glory) is bred to handle 10 furlongs on his female side,
but the speedy colt has shown a predisposition toward shorter distances and must
avoid chasing a ridiculous pace in the Derby. Can he do something that he’s
never done before?
Lawyer Ron — Is he the latest sensation from
Arkansas (following Afleet Alex and Smarty Jones) to make a serious impact upon
the Triple Crown? “Mr. Consistency” has dominated his competition all
year, winning his last six starts convincingly, and he’s unbeaten on dirt (seven for seven).
Visually impressive on the track, LAWYER RON (Langfuhr) hasn’t
earned the best BRIS Speed ratings recently (98 and 99 in two of his last three
starts), throwing doubt on the quality of his competition this year, but he
did record a 105 when capturing the Risen Star S. (G3) in January. Lawyer Ron
has the explosive turn of foot to make a run for the lead in the Kentucky Derby
if he can relax off an expected wicked pace, and he’s proven impossible to run
down in the stretch so far.
Mister Triester — Illinois Derby (G2) runner-up probably won’t appreciate
the added distance and other speed in the Derby field. A maiden winner three
starts back, MISTER TRIESTER (Old Trieste) could still opt for the Derby Trial
S. the week before and bypass the Run for the Roses.
Point Determined — Improving colt might be overshadowed by stablemates
Sinister Minister (Old Trieste) and Bob and John (Seeking the Gold), but don’t
be surprised to see him shine. 6-2-3-1 overall, POINT
DETERMINED (Point Given) finished a good second when making his stakes debut in
the San Felipe (G2) two starts back, but he didn’t have a chance off a soft pace in Santa Anita Derby (G1)
last time. He still managed to register a 101 BRIS Speed and a whopping
113 Late Pace number while rallying late to be second, and he’ll receive a much
better setup at Churchill. Derby history is filled with late bloomers who put it
all together on the first Saturday in May, and Point Determined is an exciting
prospect for Bob Baffert.
Private Vow — Ended his juvenile campaign on an excellent note,
winning the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) at Churchill Downs, but the multiple
Grade 2 hero didn’t return to the races until mid-March, finishing a dull
seventh in the Rebel S. (G3) at Oaklawn. PRIVATE VOW (Broken Vow) didn’t give
any indication that he would improve at 10 furlongs when tiring to third in the
Arkansas Derby (G2) last out, and he’ll be a serious outsider despite a 2-1-1-0
mark over the track.
Sacred Light — Ranked 23rd on the graded earnings list, SACRED LIGHT
(Holy Bull) is a longshot to make the field and will be a huge price if he runs.
However, the one-run closer will finally get a legitimate pace. He lost all
chance when stumbling at the start in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), but he wasn’t
going to challenge Brother Derek (Benchmark) that day. Most of his 2006 starts
in California have come in small fields with soft fractions up front, and the
gray colt has been a work in progress for conditioner David Hofmans. We have
seen signs of encouragement — BRIS Late Pace ratings as high as 115 and a 100
Speed rating two starts back in the Santa Catalina (G2) — and Sacred Light will
be a candidate to add spice to the gimmicks if he makes it.
Seaside Retreat — Fifth in the Sam F. Davis S. and beaten 32 1/2
lengths in the Blue Grass (G1), SEASIDE RETREAT’s (King Cugat) lone decent
effort this year came when he finished second in the Lane’s End S. (G2) over the
Polytrack at Turfway Park. The Derby appears much too ambitious.
Sharp Humor — Nice horse, but the confirmed front runner will be
jumping into a stiff headwind given all the other ultra-quick horses in the Derby
field. SHARP HUMOR (Distorted Humor) didn’t make his seasonal bow until March,
winning the seven-furlong Swale S. (G2), and won’t have a lot of bottom to him
with only two starts this year. He’s never won around two turns and is probably
facing too much speed to be effective.
Showing Up — Unbeaten colt captured his stakes bow, the Lexington
(G2), in good fashion, but SHOWING UP (Strategic Mission) earned only a 96 BRIS
Speed rating and appears too inexperienced for the Derby with only three career
starts. He didn’t make his racing debut until February 11 and has been on a
tight schedule to make the Derby after missing the Wood due to a foot bruise.
Throw in the low Speed rating last time, only one start around two turns, and a
minor leg injury suffered in the Lexington, and Showing Up appears up against
it.
Sinister Minister — Loved his Blue Grass (G1) triumph, which came by a
surprising 12 3/4-length margin, and SINISTER MINISTER (Old Trieste) will have
jockey Victor Espinoza, who expertly guided War Emblem to a wire-to-wire win in
the 2002 Derby. Like War Emblem, Sinister Minister came out of nowhere with a
breakthrough performance in his final prep race, and three-time Derby winner Bob Baffert will have him ready for his best in Louisville. However, it doesn’t
appear that a jockey can control his early speed and Sinister Minister will have
some seriously fast rivals pressing him from the start. He took advantage of
a speed friendly Keeneland track last time, and the best case scenario is that he freaks out again with another runaway victory
in the Kentucky Derby. Sinister Minister
will bring a field-best 116 Speed rating into the Derby.
Steppenwolfer — Late runner with a cool name, STEPPENWOLFER (Aptitude)
finished second to Lawyer Ron (Langfuhr) in the Arkansas Derby (G2) and
Southwest S., with a Rebel S. (G3) third in between. Late runner will have
plenty of pace to benefit him, but we’re concerned that he’s never earned a BRIS
Speed rating better than 98. His Late Pace numbers are strong, so don’t count
him out of consideration for the bottom of the exotics, but Steppenwolfer may
not be fast enough to challenge for the win.
Storm Treasure — Earned Derby berth with a runner-up finish in the Blue
Grass (G1), but STORM TREASURE (Storm Boot) hasn’t been a serious factor in
either of his stakes efforts this year. While he broke his maiden at Churchill
last fall, Storm Treasure has never won around two turns and looks overmatched
in the Derby field.
Sunriver — Needs a couple of defections to make the field. A full brother to
multiple champion Ashado, SUNRIVER (Saint Ballado) captured a five-horse
allowance two starts back and then finished third in the Florida Derby (G1)
after being steadied early, the only horse in the field to make up significant
ground from off the pace. If he gets in, Sunriver will enter the Derby off a
five-week layoff and still looks light on experience, suggesting that his best
races may come later this year, but the improving Todd Pletcher runner has
earned triple-digit BRIS Speed and Late Pace ratings in his last two starts.
Sweetnorthernsaint — Thrashed rivals in Illinois Derby (G2), winning by 9
1/4 lengths and earning a 114 BRIS Speed rating, and Maryland-based
SWEETNORTHERNSAINT (Sweetsouthernsaint) will enter the Kentucky Derby in
outstanding form for trainer Michael Trombetta. His close third in the Gotham S.
(G3) was better than it appeared, as he traveled wide on both turns over
Aqueduct’s inner track after breaking from post 10, and we loved the way he
improved off that performance at Hawthorne. His Speed figures this year
(114-107-105-107) are superb and two-time Derby winner Kent Desormeaux will be
guiding him. Sweetnorthernsaint has a similar run style to many rivals — he
wants to be sitting just off the pace with his natural speed — but few can
match his explosiveness (three wins by nine lengths or more). He looks very dangerous.