I have some exciting news to report: I snapped a 7-year losing streak in the Triple Crown and had my best season ever when my wagers on Derby, Preakness, and Belmont weekends (defined as Friday-Saturday at the host tracks) posted an ROI of 29.59%, which far surpassed the 13.88% from 2011, which is the only other year since 2010 that I had a positive ROI on U.S. racing’s classic weekends. This also marks the first year I won on all three weekends.
Unfortunately, the overall numbers dating back 10 seasons are still grim. My classic weekend ROI is -11.56, and when you factor in my Breeders’ Cup performance over that time it drops to an even-more dreadful -15.74%, but there is hope.
Obviously, this small, one-year sample size is not indicative of future success, but our ROI going back to the 2017 Kentucky Derby (a span of 11 Big Event weekends) is about a quarter-percent to the good, which is a stark contrast to the previous 3 seasons (2014-2016) when I was at -20%.
I credit what I hope is a long-term turnaround to the realization that while my job is to pick winners, and I take a lot of pride in that, my vocation is to make wagers reflective of my opinion.
On Kentucky Oaks-Derby weekend my strongest opinions were that I didn’t like the favorites in either the Oaks or Derby and that I didn’t think Bricks And Mortar could lose. I did not pick the winners of either of the marquee races (and completely whiffed the Derby with my “picks”), but my wagering strategy of taking the bottom halves of each field in the Oaks-Derby double as well as singling B&M between those prices resulted in a few good multi-day scores. I also caught the Derby exacta when boxing the bottom half of the field.
I’m most proud of the Preakness, as both my opinions–that War of Will was the horse to beat and Improbable was vulnerable to even hit the board–conspired to produce a great trifecta when Everfast snuck into the number.
For Belmont day, all my hopes were on Mitole, and he obliged at 7-to-2. I think both War of Will in the Preakness and Mitole in the Met Mile are examples of overlays that can really only happen on these kinds of Big Event days.
My biggest regret is I probably squandered too much capital singling War of Will in multi-race wagers on Preakness day. It was worth taking a shot, but no opinion in a preceding race was stronger than my complementary opinion in the Preakness: that Improbable would not run well. Based on that, I should have been more aggressive in the Preakness only.
So Breeders’ Cup awaits (where?) to close the book on 2019. It would have to be historically dreadful for me not to finish this year’s Big Events in the black for the second consecutive year and third time in 5 years. Going into 2015 (since 2010), I had never had a winning Big Event year, so to go from -35% (!) 2010-2014 to -5% since the 2015 Derby is gratifying.
Incidentally, these big events represent about 4% of the days I’ve played the races since 2010 but 9.5% of my overall handle in that time.
