KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT
JANUARY 8, 2009
by James Scully
The four-month procession to the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby (G1) on
May 2 is underway, and I will begin the New Year with a look back at 2008.
Listed below are profiles of 40 Kentucky Derby hopefuls.
MIDSHIPMAN — Probable two-year-old champ deserves top billing, compiling
victories in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and Del Mar Futurity (G1), but he’s
an unusual winter book favorite. For starters, Midshipman is now based in Dubai
and won’t return to the United States until April. He’s been transferred from
three-time Kentucky Derby winner Bob Baffert to Saeed bin Suroor, and, as a
formerly Southern California-based colt, Midshipman has never raced on dirt.
After rating off the pace in his first three starts, Midshipman was eager to
run from the start in the Juvenile, recording the only front-running victory in
a Breeders’ Cup race over the Pro-Ride. Well built physically, he’s got the
pedigree and stride to handle both dirt and the 1 1/4-mile distance. And his
BRIS Speed ratings are solid, registering a 94 for the Del Mar Futurity, a 93
for a narrow second in the Norfolk (G1) and a 102 for his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
tally from post 10.
OLD FASHIONED — Unbeaten gray won the Remsen S. (G2) by 7 1/4 lengths under
a hold. Old Fashioned will be a great story if he wins the Derby, as owner Fox
Hills Farms and trainer Larry Jones have finished second in the last two
runnings with Hard Spun and the ill-fated Eight Belles, and the talented colt
gives his connections plenty of reason to be excited this year.
Old Fashioned, who has earned 101 BRIS Speed ratings in his last two starts,
gets a mix of speed and stamina from his dam’s side and has every right to
handle 10 furlongs. He’s won his last two starts in wire-to-wire fashion, but
Old Fashioned looks like a versatile performer who can win from anywhere.
VINEYARD HAVEN — Provides Godolphin with a stiff one-two punch heading into
2009. Purchased by Bobby Frankel following a debut win at Calder, he broke a
step slowly and wasn’t a serious factor in the Sanford S. (G2). Vineyard Haven
showed speed from the start in the Hopeful S. (G1) next out, edging clear at the
top of the stretch for a 2 1/4-length score, and the gray colt continued to
improve with a sensational tally in the Champagne (G1).
After dueling through wicked early fractions against a longshot speedball,
Vineyard Haven drew off like a true professional leaving the far turn at Belmont
Park, crushing his rivals through the stretch with a strong finish that netted
him a 106 BRIS Speed rating for the 5 3/4-length decision. Granted, it was a
one-turn mile and he’s never been two turns. And Vineyard Haven’s pedigree isn’t
favorable for 10 furlongs, with his dam being a pure sprinter. However, Vineyard
Haven hasn’t shown any distance limitations so far, and the top-class performer
merits serious respect. Godolphin reportedly paid $12 million for the fast
Florida-bred following his Champagne win.
STARDOM BOUND — She stacks up well against males based on her juvenile form,
but it’s always difficult to get excited about a filly’s chances because her
counterparts tend to get bigger and stronger over the winter. Then again, that
didn’t stop Eight Belles, Winning Colors and Genuine Risk from distinguishing
themselves against male rivals at Churchill Downs, and, like those fillies,
Stardom Bound isn’t diminutive.
The gray recorded a dominant score in the seven-furlong Del Mar Debutante
(G1) prior to a pair of impressive wins at 1 1/16 miles in the Oak Leaf (G1) and
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), swooping past her rivals from the back of
the field to win by daylight each time. She registered a 100 BRIS Speed rating
in the Breeders’ Cup, and has notched Late Pace figures of 115 and 112. Stardom
Bound, who has never raced on dirt, was recently purchased by IEAH Stables, who
owned 2008 Derby winner Big Brown, and is now conditioned by Bobby Frankel.
Alphabetical Order:
AMERICAN DANCE — Maiden winner is a half-brother to Horse of the Year Saint
Liam and concluded his juvenile campaign with a third in the Remsen S. (G2). The
Virginia-bred gray won his second time out but only earned an 88 BRIS Speed
rating. His Speed numbers are low, but American Dance could prove to be a
late-developing type for Todd Pletcher. The A.P. Indy colt owns an excellent
pedigree.
ATOMIC RAIN — Kelly Breen pupil broke his maiden sprinting in early June but
wasn’t seen again until the Remsen in late November, where he offered a solid
rally for runner-up honors while racing a bit greenly in the stretch. His
career-best BRIS Speed rating is a 93, but Atomic Rain is bred to relish longer
distances and has every reason to improve upon his encouraging effort in the 1
1/8-mile Remsen.
AU MOON — Impressively broke his maiden on the final day of the Churchill
fall meet, drawing clear to a 5 3/4-length decision over a well-regarded rival
while completely in hand. Trained by David Carroll, Au Moon made his second
career start in the 1 1/8-mile maiden special weight and registered a 100 BRIS
Late Pace rating. The Malibu Moon colt figures to receive plenty of stamina from
his dam’s side.
BELIEVE IN HOPE — Won at first asking at Del Mar for Ron Ellis and finished
fifth when making his stakes debut in the Del Mar Futurity (G1). Believe in Hope
improved off that effort when just missing in the Norfolk S. (G1), rallying
boldly through the stretch to miss by three parts of a length in third, and he
earned a 108 BRIS Late Pace rating. He’s bred to handle dirt and longer
distances, and the chestnut owns a strong finishing kick.
BEETHOVEN — After breaking his maiden sprinting on the Polytrack at Turfway
Park in September, Beethoven turned in a pair of commendable efforts around two
turns at Churchill Downs, winning an allowance prior to a game neck score in the
Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). He earned a career-best 96 BRIS Speed rating in the
latter, and the bay colt has Derby-winning connections. Not sure about his
pedigree for 10 furlongs, but Beethoven looks like a major player in upcoming
prep races.
BREAK WATER EDISON — Ended his juvenile season on a strong note, winning the
one-mile Nashua S. (G3) by a 1 3/4-length margin, and his BRIS numbers (105
Speed; 109 Late Pace) flattered the visually impressive performance. The John
Kimmel trainee didn’t fire against better company when fourth in the Hopeful S.
(G1) and eighth in the Champagne S. (G1), but he looked relaxed and eager to run
in the stretch of the Nashua. Break Water Edison is a very promising colt for
2009.
BROTHER KEITH — He will enter 2009 with a one-for-one mark, annexing a 6
1/2-furlong maiden special weight by 2 1/4 lengths on November 8, and the Bobby
Frankel-trained colt surprisingly showed speed from the start that afternoon.
Brother Keith earned only an 86 BRIS Speed and 79 Late Pace rating, and the
chestnut colt’s pedigree is slanted toward turf/synthetic surfaces. The
Kentucky-bred still has much to prove.
CAPT. CANDYMAN CAN — An authoritative three-length winner of the one-mile
Iroquois S. (G3) at Churchill Downs, Capt. Candyman Can regressed when
stretching out to two turns in the 1 1/16-mile Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2),
weakening to third in the stretch after setting the pace. The Ian Wilkes pupil
owns good speed and commendable juvenile Speed figures, but he’ll need to prove
himself at two turns in order to remain a viable Derby candidate.
CHARITABLE MAN — He looked like the complete package this fall. A dazzling
wire-to-wire maiden winner in his career debut at Saratoga, Charitable Man
showed a different dimension when making his second career start in the
seven-furlong Futurity (G2), rallying from off the pace to win going away. The
Kiaran McLaughlin runner has earned 101 and 98 BRIS Speed ratings, as well as a
102 Late Pace rating in the Futurity, and owns a mouth-watering pedigree for
classic distances. There’s a lot to like, but Charitable Man was sidelined by an
injury following his last start on September 13. It will be interesting to see
when he returns to the worktab this winter.
CHOCOLATE CANDY — After needing four starts to break his maiden, Chocolate
Candy captured the Real Quiet S. and finished third in the CashCall Futurity
(G1). The late runner was hurt by a slow pace in the latter, but he passed a
handful of rivals in the stretch to miss by only 1 1/2 lengths, earning a 106
BRIS Late Pace rating. His Speed figures need to increase (career best 90), but
Chocolate Candy is out of a Seattle Slew mare and figures to keep improving for
Jerry Hollendorfer.
CORONET OF A BARON — His future could lie on turf, but Coronet of a Baron
merits respect based on his efforts over the Polytrack at Del Mar. A smart
first-out winner at Arlington Park in July, the Darley-owned colt shipped west
and finished a close third in the Best Pal S. (G2). He then missed by only a
nose to Midshipman with a super-game effort in the Del Mar Futurity (G1).
Coronet of a Baron seized a short lead at the top of the stretch before
weakening to third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last time out, and he’ll
probably be given a chance to prove his worth on dirt this spring.
CRIBNOTE — Broke his maiden by 13 1/2 lengths over New York-bred rivals at
Saratoga, registering a 102 BRIS Speed rating, and rebounded from blowing the
turn in the Hopeful S. (G1) next time out to finish a rallying second behind
Vineyard Haven. The Richard Violette charge had no excuses when stretching out
to a mile in the Champagne S. (G1), creating concerns about his ability to
handle longer distances when weakening to a well-beaten third, but Cribnote will
get the opportunity to show more this winter.
DANGER TO SOCIETY — Rallied to win his career debut at Churchill Downs on
November 19, receiving a well-timed ride from Robby Albarado to take the
one-mile test by 1 1/2 lengths, and the $300,000 yearling purchase hails from
the same female family as 1997 Derby winner Silver Charm. Danger to Society
notched only an 88 BRIS Speed rating, but the Kenny McPeek runner is bred to
excel at longer distances and obviously owns plenty of room for improvement. The
maiden winner is one to keep an eye on.
DESERT PARTY — After breaking his maiden on the Polytrack at Arlington,
Desert Party made a seamless transition to dirt when annexing the Sanford S.
(G2) by 3 1/4 lengths. He earned only an 87 BRIS Speed rating and could do no
better than sixth in the Hopeful S. (G1) next time out, and the Darley-owned
colt was forced to miss the Breeders’ Cup due to a minor ailment. Desert Party
returned to the worktab in November and traveled to Dubai with Midshipman and
Vineyard Haven in December. Desert Party will need to run faster than he did
last summer, but the $2.1 million purchase owns two-year-old class and looms as
a sleeper to develop into a very nice three-year-old for Godolphin.
DONATIVUM (GB) — The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner has raced
exclusively on the sod, but the Kentucky Derby remains an option for the John
Gosden pupil. As a gelding, Donativum isn’t eligible for the European classics.
The gray has won three straight since being gelded last summer, and he could
prep over the Polytrack in England before shipping to the United States this
spring.
GIANT OAK — After breaking his maiden on the turf at Arlington and capturing
a Polytrack allowance at the same venue, Giant Oak made his dirt debut from the
far outside post in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill. The Chris Block
trainee went wide on both turns, but he finished up boldly off the slow pace to
miss by only a neck in second, registering a 100 BRIS Late Pace and a
career-best 95 Speed rating. He’ll get stamina from both sides of his pedigree,
and the Giant’s Causeway colt is intriguing.
GIROLAMO – The Kiaran McLaughlin pupil broke his maiden first-time out at the
Spa, rallying sharply off the far turn to win going away by 3 1/4 lengths, but
didn’t display the same turn of foot when fourth in the Futurity S. (G2) next
time out. Girolamo concluded his season with a dull sixth in the Champagne S.
(G1), but the well-bred colt will get the opportunity to regroup this winter.
GONE ASTRAY — He displayed plenty of promise when breaking his maiden second
time out at Saratoga for Shug McGaughey, but his unplaced efforts in the
Futurity (G2) and Champagne (G1) were disappointing. The Phipps homebred owns a
wonderful pedigree (Inside Information is his granddam), but Gone Astray will
need to show much more when stretching out in distance.
HELLO BROADWAY — A half-brother to 2007 Wood Memorial (G1) winner Nobiz Like
Shobiz, Hello Broadway captured his career debut at Saratoga in late August but
was no factor in the Champagne (G1) following a rough beginning. The Barclay
Tagg trainee rebounded with a much improved showing in the Nashua (G3), rallying
boldly late for runner-up honors behind Break Water Edison, and the chestnut
colt earned excellent BRIS figures (103 Speed; 106 Late Pace). Hello Broadway is
one of the top Derby prospects wintering in Florida.
IMPERIAL COUNCIL — This well-bred colt ran a huge second in his debut behind
Hello Broadway for Shug McGaughey and followed that with a professional triumph
going seven furlongs at Belmont Park in October. Imperial Council has the
pedigree to excel at a route of ground and is in the right hands to do so. He
earned a 98 BRIS Speed number in his debut, followed by a 91 for his initial
win, and it seems logical that the Kentucky-bred has plenty of room for
improvement. In his win, he topped subsequent Remsen S. (G2) third American
Dance and the impressive Professor Z, who earned a whopping 100 Speed number in
a recent allowance win.
INDYGO MOUNTAIN — Rallied to finish second in his debut over the Polytrack
at Keeneland and then crushed maiden rivals in a one-mile test at Churchill
Downs, drawing clear in the stretch for a 6 1/4-length decision. Indygo Mountain
earned a respectable 92 BRIS Speed rating and provides a hope for sire A.P.
Indy, who is still seeking his first Derby winner, but the chestnut colt was
scratched before a scheduled start in a December 18 allowance at Fair Grounds
due to a physical concern. He’s returned to the worktab for trainer Bret
Calhoun, and we won’t be surprised to see him develop into a very nice
three-year-old.
I WANT REVENGE — He dropped his first three starts sprinting but immediately
graduated when stretch out to a route on October 29, leading wire to wire in an
8 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Hollywood. Making his first start against
winners in the CashCall Futurity (G1), I Want Revenge reverted to rating tactics
and rallied off a slow pace to just miss by a nose against a much more seasoned
Pioneerof the Nile. Loved the way the Jeff Mullins-trained colt altered course
yet maintained his momentum in the stretch of the Futurity, displaying plenty of
athleticism while netting a 108 BRIS Late Pace rating, and one has to be
impressed by the way this colt’s improved since stretching out in ground two
starts back.
JOSE ADAN — He’s finished first in all three starts (disqualified to second
in the Arlington-Washington Futurity [G3]) and Godolphin thought enough of the
Illinois-bred gelding to purchase him. Currently wintering in Dubai, Jose Adan
has raced exclusively on Polytrack and has never been two turns. He also doesn’t
own much pedigree. It’s difficult to get excited about his Derby prospects.
MAJORMOTIONPICTURE — Debuted against a full field on Pacific Classic (G1)
day at Del Mar and recorded a sharp score from the rail as the favorite. Trained
by Michael Machowsky, the Kentucky-bred colt hasn’t been seen again under silks,
but Majormotionpicture has been training forwardly at Santa Anita since early
November. We are looking forward to seeing the talented colt return to the
races.
MR. FANTASY — New York-bred probably didn’t beat much in his debut over
Aqueduct’s inner track on December 28, but he did so spectacularly, winning off
by 10 1/2 lengths in the six-furlong event. The Kiaran McLaughlin pupil is out
of a Spectacular Bid mare, and Mr. Fantasy recorded a 107 BRIS Speed rating for
his romping victory.
MUNNINGS — Rolled to a sharp 4 1/4-length debut score after hitting the gate
at the start and proceeded to finish third and second behind Vineyard Haven in
the Hopeful S. (G1) and Champagne S. (G1), respectively. Munnings didn’t appear
comfortable over the Pro-Ride in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), so he gets a
pass for that subpar performance. From the first crop of champion sprinter
Speightstown, the chestnut colt figures to receive stamina from his classy
female bloodlines, and his juvenile Speed numbers (99 career best) are strong.
He still needs to prove that he can stretch out in distance, but the talented
colt looms as a serious factor in upcoming prep races for Todd Pletcher.
PIONEEROF THE NILE — Broke his maiden on the turf at Saratoga prior to
recording a fast-finishing third in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and a
late-running fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) over synthetic tracks.
Pioneerof the Nile showed more tactical speed when annexing the CashCall
Futurity (G1), gamely withstanding I Want Revenge by a nose, and he’s in good
hands with Bob Baffert. The dark bay colt, who has earned a career-best 98 BRIS
Speed rating, looks like a serious Derby contender if he can transfer his form
to dirt.
POINT ENCOUNTER — The word was out on him prior to his debut on December 26,
and Point Encounter didn’t disappoint his many backers, winning a 6 1/2-furlong
event over the Pro-Ride by 1 3/4 lengths. The Carla Gaines runner received a
solid 93 BRIS Speed rating and appears to own a bright future.
PROFESSOR Z — Following a non-descript maiden tally at the Big A, Professor
Z stretched out to two turns and impressively captured a one-mile and 70-yard
allowance on December 7, drawing clear by 5 3/4 lengths while registering a 100
BRIS Speed rating. Steve Asmussen conditions the improving colt, and Professor Z
is bred to keep showing more at longer distances.
QUALITY ROAD — Won’t be surprised to see Quality Road develop into a top
Derby contender. Faced 12 rivals in his career debut at Aqueduct and dominated
in front-running style over the main track, winning the 6 1/2-furlong heat by 2
3/4 lengths. He earned a 102 BRIS Speed and 103 Late Pace for the professional
effort, and the James Jerkens-trained colt owns a terrific pedigree for classic
distances.
SILVER CITY — One of several promising colts this year by Unbridled’s Song,
joining more notable rivals Midshipman and Old Fashioned, Silver City will bring
a two-race winning skein into 2009. He garnered a maiden special weight at
Keeneland prior to a sharp 4 1/2-length allowance score at Churchill in which he
earned a 103 BRIS Speed rating. The Bret Calhoun-trained speedster owns the
pedigree to stretch out effectively, but the jury is still out about his ability
to handle two turns.
SQUARE EDDIE — Shipped to America with only a turf maiden win to his credit
in England and immediately made his presence felt stateside when rolling to a
superb 4 3/4-length victory in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1). The Doug
O’Neill-trained colt carried his form forward in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
(G1), turning in another strong effort for second while registering a 100 BRIS
Speed rating, and the Canadian-bred chestnut owns the pedigree to handle dirt as
a son of Smart Strike. That’s the big question surrounding Square Eddie — can
he transfer his stellar juvenile form to dirt this spring. He’s got the tools to
develop into one of the best three-year-olds if he does.
TAQARUB – The Kiaran McLaughlin trainee will bring a two-for-two mark into
his sophomore season, winning a sprint on the main track at Aqueduct and an
allowance over the inner oval, both at six furlongs. Led wire to wire both
times, registering BRIS Speed ratings of 90 and 92, and obviously will need to
prove himself at longer distances. With a pedigree loaded with stamina
influences, Taqarub owns plenty of potential at longer distances, and he’s in
good hands.
TERRAIN — Winner of the Arlington-Washington Futurity (G3) via
disqualification, Terrain followed that effort with a respectable second in the
Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and an unlucky fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
(G1). The Al Stall runner experienced traffic problems in the latter, but he had
no visible excuses when finishing fifth as the favorite in the Delta Jackpot
(G3). He was eligible to regress in that spot off the Breeders’ Cup, and the
late-running gelding remains a promising Derby prospect.
WELL POSITIONED — A 14 1/4-length maiden winner at Aqueduct on November 22,
the Canadian-bred colt is owned by Paul Pompa and trained by Pat Reynolds, the
original connections of Big Brown. Well Positioned dominated on the front end
through slow early fractions last time, but he did receive a whopping 103 BRIS
Speed rating in the one-mile event. It will be interesting to see if he can back
up this performance next time.
WEST SIDE BERNIE — Delta Jackpot (G3) runner-up broke his maiden at Monmouth
in late August and followed it with a nice three-length score in the Kentucky
Cup Juvenile (G3) over the Polytrack at Turfway Park. West Side Bernie dropped
far back and experienced a wide trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), but he
did finish up well for sixth, passing rivals to be beaten only three lengths,
and showed his versatility over any kind of ground at Delta Downs. The Kelly
Breen trainee owns a good turn of foot and solid BRIS Speed ratings.