HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
JUNE 5, 2015
by Dick Powell
I have some news for you: There are no “Gods of Racing.” You hear about them
every time some horse gets beat and for secondary reasons like ownership or the
trainer, the “Gods of Racing” intervened and kept them from winning.
On Saturday, American Pharoah (Pioneerof The Nile) will go for the Triple
Crown and no matter what you read in the papers about his owner, the horse will
either win or lose without any intervention from the “Gods of Racing.”
I remember when Big Brown was racing and the antipathy against his ownership
and trainer were at an all-time high. Those that hated or disliked the
connections of Big Brown were thrilled when he lost the Belmont Stakes (G1). It
even carried over to his stud career when the antipathy was still fresh and some
didn’t want to breed to him.
What they ignored, or failed to see, was that Big Brown put together an
historical trio of races that were unmatched in horse racing history. His win in
the Florida Derby (G1) was sensational, his Kentucky Derby (G1) victory was even
better as he effortlessly dominated from post 20 in a wide trip. And then he
came back to romp in the Preakness (G1).
American Pharoah has done nothing wrong since his shocking defeat in his
career debut on the synthetic track at Del Mar. His races have all been won by
wide margins and the only time anyone got within a length of him was in the
Derby when he raced needlessly wide and lost an amazing amount of ground.
When you handicap horses, leave out the other stuff. It has nothing to do
with the horse and his chances at winning. If American Pharoah loses on
Saturday, it will not be due to the “Gods of Racing” intervening but another
horse beating him to the wire.
I love the Met Mile (G1) and hate that it is run on the Belmont Stakes
undercard. It is a race worthy of its own big stage and should not share it with
anyone.
When you go back through its history, there have been many longshots who won
it so don’t be afraid of going against form. There appears to be a ton of speed
in this year’s renewal and plenty of closers. Somewhere in the deep stretch they
will meet and it should be as exciting as any race you will see all year.
The mighty Forego won it in 1976 carrying 130 pounds and came back the next
year with 133 pounds to win it again. Cox’s Ridge was every bit as tall as
Forego but did not carry as much weight when he won it in 1978.
In 1979, I was at Belmont for the Met Mile and the heavy favorite was Alyday.
C. V. Whitney’s State Dinner had shipped to Hollywood Park where he won the
Century Handicap (G1) going 1 3/8 miles on the turf. He was facing a good field
in the Met but being by the great Buckpasser, it seemed that he was better
suited for dirt.
Trained by Hall of Famer Elliott Burch and ridden by a young Chris McCarron,
he was dismissed at 25-to-1 and when he blew by the field, the tote board lit up
with the odds-on Alydar out of the money. I remember State Dinner paid something
like $17 to place and $25 to show. I bet him across the board and a nice horse
that wound up being a sprint champion, Dr. Patches, finished second but there
was no exacta back then. Still, I made so much money that I went into the men’s
room stall and put the cash in my tube socks (yes, we wore those ugly socks that
came up below out knees) for the long subway and bus ride home to State Island.
In 1982, Woody Stephens sent out Conquistador Cielo to win the Met Mile as a
three-year-old on a Monday and wheeled him back that Saturday to win the Belmont
Stakes by a pole.
John Veitch might have lost the Met Mile in 1979 but he came back in 1983
when he was training for Frances Genter and won it with Star Choice at something
like 40-to-1. I had him wheeled in the late double and naturally the favorite
won the last race. Still, it was a big score.
In 1990, I saw the ugliest crowd I have ever seen at a racetrack. New York’s
Easy Goer was back for his four-year-old season and won his first start in a
minor stakes race. He was up against Housebuster, who would go on to be champion
sprinter in 1990 and 1991 on his way to the Hall of Fame.
Despite being a racing and breeding dynasty, Calumet Farm had never won the
Met Mile but they had Criminal Type coming in off a win in the Pimlico Special
(G1). The big crowd came out to see Easy Goer begin to redeem himself from his
loss in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) to archrival Sunday Silence and the Met
Mile was going to be the first major step of the campaign.
Housebuster, trained by Jimmie Croll, who would later train Holy Bull to a
win in the Met Mile, was as game as a horse could be and battled Easy Goer
through the lane. He wound up winning the battle but lost the war when Criminal
Type blew by everyone to win going away.
After the race, I was down in the tunnel leading back to the jock’s room from
the winner’s circle and Easy Goer’s rider, Pat Day, was being booed and cursed
at unmercifully. It was an ugly crowd and they were not happy with Day’s ride.
In 2001, the Met Mile was contested over a very muddy track and Harry
Mangurian’s Exciting Story rallied from off the pace to score going away and pay
$115.50 to win. The next year, Mangurian-bred Swept Overboard won it at 11-to-1.
Johnny Velazquez has won it five times and picks up the mount on Belmont
Stakes winner Tonalist who has never been beaten on Big Sandy. He will probably
be the favorite but I’ll be looking elsewhere.