Look, there is no way to sugarcoat my wagering in 2019. It was not only bad but also worthy of an adverb to describe how bad it was: Historically bad.
I lost 25.75% of the money I wagered—making this worst year I’ve had in 10 years of documenting every bet. The poor performance affected my handle, too, as it dropped year over year for the first time since 2014, and December was my lowest handled month since March 2014.
So what went wrong?
A big issue is bankroll management. I suppose when it comes to my compulsion to gamble, pressing wins is a better problem to have than chasing losses, but neither is ideal obviously.
Instead of making more smart bets over time with the increased capital, I just make more bets immediately after. B.S. like, “Oh, I’ll just add these horses because now I have the money.”
It’s embarrassing to type that out, but that’s why I do this. There is no way to get better without being aware of your shortcomings.
For the sake of round numbers, let’s say I’m comfortable betting about $100/day from a working capital of $10,000. If I have a good day and win $2,000 then instead of being comfortable betting $100-$150 on the next opportunity, I’m firing $1,000 through the windows the next day regardless. It’s not healthy.
Disclaimer: I’m not saying it’s good to have a set amount/day to bet—just trying to illustrate my poor bankroll management. There are definitely instances that call for betting more of your bankroll, but conversely there are instances where it’s prudent not to bet at all.
So what does this mean for 2020? It means much more careful thought about my bankroll versus my account balance.
Another issue is an inefficient use of wagering options. This is where I will get into my handicapping results, as I’m sure the impulse after seeing I lost $25.75 of every $100 wagered will be to blame my handicapping, but I really don’t think that’s it.
To wit, I have tracked every grid since the start of Churchill’s September meeting, and while the top pick ROI of -16.76% isn’t great, the lone “A” strike rate of -2.76% is pretty solid considering a pick counts for these purposes regardless of price, doesn’t take into account late scratches, etc.
Bluntly, I’m capable of identifying not only likely winners but also overlaid winners, and my handicapping results make my wagering results even more embarrassing to share, and that’s what leads me to the wagering menu. More importantly, though, picking winners isn’t what’s important. Finding a likely loser at 4-to-5 is important too. So is wagering correctly to make the most of those opportunities.
In 2019, I had a positive ROI in the following bet types: win, place, exacta, and trifecta. I was negative in literally everything else, including the Pick Ns that I love so much. Of course part of the pick N struggle is those were definitely the wagering types I’d overextend on if I had a good day. E.g., If I won $2,000 on Wednesday I wasn’t coming back on Thursday and making big win bets, I was swinging in Pick 5s. Bad!
Anyway, as much fun as the Pick Ns are, the data indicates that my strategy there is not ideal. I shouldn’t be losing 25% of my money if my key horses only lose 2.76% to win (and again, that’s with no regard to “value”).
Penultimately, I must be more disciplined with track selection. I am up for life on tracks from my native land, including another positive year at both Mahoning Valley and Thistledown last year. And while it was a bad year in Kentucky the majority of my grids that produced the aforementioned results with top picks are from there, and I’m comfortable enough with my grasp of the racing here that I feel it should be my focus.
Lastly, I do want to end on a positive, and despite the horrendous annual results there was actually one silver lining that I do see as something build on: For the second year in a row my “big event” handle (Derby, Preakness, Belmont, and Breeders’ Cup weekends) was positive.
I’ve talked before about this being a big leak for me betting on big days, and it’s good to see the focus on making the most of these days has produced at least a short-term turn around.
One of the things I find easier to do on big days is really dig in against a favorite. That shouldn’t be easier on any particular day. It should be standard operating procedure. A goal for 2020 is to work harder at marrying good opinions about overlays with good opinions about beatable favorites.
