HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
JANUARY 30, 2009
by Dick Powell
In today’s world, any time a horse jumps up with a huge performance generates
questions about the trainer’s integrity. “How could a horse that never ran
better than X now run X plus 15 points?” is immediately asked, especially if it
is the horse’s first start off the claim for the trainer or the trainer just
acquired the horse. If the trainer has multiple medication infractions, more red
flags go up than a May Day parade in Moscow’s Red Square.
So when THIS ONES FOR PHIL (Untuttable) romped in Saturday’s Sunshine
Millions Dash by 2 1/4 lengths in 1:09.10 on a track that had been playing slow in
his first start for Rick Dutrow, Jr., the alarms were sounded. Gasoline was
added to the blaze of suspicion when he earned gigantic Speed figures by all
measurements — a BRIS Speed rating of 111 compared to a previous career best of
92. Clearly, the rumored Dutrow magic had to be at work.
Formerly trained by Katie O’Connell, who raced him going two turns in his
last four starts despite having a very speedy pedigree, This Ones for Phil was
coming off a 77-day layoff and was now dropping back to six furlongs. In a race
restricted for Florida- and California-breds, he was not impossible to have even
if O’Connell were still training him.
Now with Dutrow, This Ones for Phil had eight workouts since changing hands
and looked fit and ready. Regardless of how you feel about Dutrow, he wins an
amazing 32 percent with horses making their first start for him while showing a healthy
positive ROI of 0.40. For a handicapper, this is a potent stat. Unfortunately,
not many players paid attention to it and This Ones for Phil was dismissed at
odds of 11-1 even with Edgar Prado in the irons.
Prado stalked the early pace while clear on the outside and This Ones for
Phil pulled him to the lead at the top of the stretch. From there, he was in
cruise control to the wire, with 6-5 favorite You Luckie Mann (Exchange Rate)
finishing a
well-beaten second.
Dutrow had the horse for 77 days and sports an impressive 32 percent strike rate
when horses make their first start for him. This Ones for Phil went off at a
generous 11-1 odds. While he had not run this fast in his juvenile season, he
still was an open company stakes winner. It’s not like Dutrow claimed him the
week before and he ran this kind of race after a few days in the barn. Where’s
the love?
I’ll give you a similar example of a horse winning off a layoff and there is
no reason to be suspicious. I am leaving out the details on who the horse is
since I cannot get a hold of its owner to ask him if I can use his name. People
tell me lots of things and it’s not always for the record.
Anyway, this horse had been racing in New York with mixed results all year.
My friend wanted the trainer to go into the stifles since she was not pushing
off out of the gate and did not seem to be getting the necessary propulsion from
behind. The trainer was reluctant to do so, and toward the end of last year she
started showing signs of wear and tear and was sent to the farm.
After being given time to unwind, the vet came and found a lot of fluid in
her stifles and withdrew it. She went back to the track as a new horse and
promptly won her first start over the weekend at a nice price. To show you how
my weekend went, I was tapped out way before This Ones for Phil raced on
Saturday and didn’t play at all on Sunday.
The fact is, there’s a lot of vet work, perfectly legal, that takes place
between races. And, even if you knew what was being done it wouldn’t help you as
a handicapper. I can’t tell you how many times I have heard about a horse
receiving a throat operation and the horse runs poorly even though it allegedly
has had its breathing problems fixed. Sometimes, you are better off not knowing
as there is an element of sausage-making to the training of horses and if you
really knew how many ailments they have you would never play them.
But, in Dutrow’s case, we know his record in that spot and could have acted
accordingly.
I was around when Oscar Barrera was the scourge of New York racing and made a
mockery of the claiming game with inexplicably quick turnarounds that won
despite having to move up in class. Can someone e-mail any recent horses that
have been claimed, run back in less than two weeks and won after being moved up
in class? I hear about them all the time when players are lamenting what the
game has become, but I really don’t see them. I see a lot of trainers that claim,
work on the horse for a long enough period of time that they can then drop the
horse down in price and win. But I am not seeing the quick turnaround, move up
in class and win move that others are referring to. If you see any that fit the
bill please let me know.
Another horse that looked good off a long layoff was DESERT PARTY (Street
Cry), who returned last Thursday with a sharp score at Nad al Sheba in an
allowance event against some tough customers. An impressive winner first out for
Darley last year at Arlington Park, Desert Party came back in the mud at
Saratoga to win the historic Sanford S. (G2) in a game effort but his
juvenile season ended with a poor effort in the Hopeful S. (G1).
Sent to Dubai and now part of Godolphin, Desert Party returned to the races
in a seven-furlong allowance event that attracted a Group 1 winner from
South Africa, a Group 2 winner from England, a Group 3 winner from
Peru, a multiple Group 1-placed colt from Argentina, and his own
stablemate, Regal Ransom (Distorted Humor), who was a monster debut winner last
year at Saratoga going seven furlongs in fast time, earning a BRIS Speed
rating of 99.
What made Desert Party’s win so impressive was that he stalked the early pace
in behind horses and then won the race in the stretch while racing down on the
inside. On any other main track I would say he had a perfect trip. At Nad al
Sheba, I would say that he was on the worst part of the track. A half length
back in second was Regal Ransom, who had a perfect stalking trip on the outside.
Next start for the Godolphin pair should be the UAE Two Thousand Guineas (UAE-G3) going
a mile on February 12. Desert Party has the pedigree and has already answered
questions regarding his gameness. Can’t wait to see how he’ll stretch out.