Analysis of Friday’s third race at Churchill Downs:
Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (5 furlongs, 2:06 p.m. ET)
#1 Pico d’Oro — Trainer William Morey strikes at a respectable 16% rate with first-time starters and this $225,000 auction purchase has flashed speed at The Thoroughbred Center, breezing a half-mile from the starting gate in :47 2/5 on June 6. However, Pico d’Oro’s sire (two-time Horse of the Year Curlin) and damsire (champion 3-year-old Bernardini) were late-maturing classic types who failed to race as juveniles, and this stoutly-bred youngster might not reach his peak until later in the season or next year.
#2 Jackie’s Warrior —Maclean’s Music sires 16% debut winners and Steve Asmussen is on fire with juvenile first-time starters at Churchill this spring, going 4-for-6 (67%) since the start of the meet. Jackie’s Warrior is a half-sibling to the juvenile winner King Theo and boasts a pedigree geared toward speed, so there’s every reason to think this $95,000 yearling purchase will come out running on debut. A bullet :47 1/5 half-mile breeze from the Keeneland starting gate adds to the appeal and Asmussen’s go-to jockey Ricardo Santana takes the mount, stamping Jackie’s Warrior as the horse to beat.
#3 Therideofalifetime — It’s safe to say Therideofaliftime has a pedigree geared toward early success; sire Candy Ride is responsible for 13% debut winners and dam Cosmic Evolution won Churchill’s Debutante S. in June of her 2-year-old season. Trainer Ignacio Correas strikes at a solid 14% rate with first-time starters and Therideofalifetime has flashed speed in the mornings at Keeneland, breezing a half-mile from the starting gate in :47 2/5 on June 3. This Stephen Fidel homebred is worth a look for the exotics.
#4 All I Know — Owner/trainer Jason McCutchen does solid work with first-time starters, saddling four winners from 15 starters (27%) since 2016. All I Know sold for just $4,500 as a yearling, but his pedigree is filled with early-maturing potential; sire Secret Circle won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint as a 2-year-old and half-sister Totally Normal was a juvenile winner who later placed in stakes company. With veteran Churchill jockey Corey Lanerie in the saddle, All I Know can vie for a spot on the board.
#5 Petit Verdot — Son of Australian-bred juvenile star Vancouver failed to show much in his debut on May 22 at Churchill, tracking the early pace before weakening to finish fifth in a 4 1/2-furlong dash. Trainer John Ennis fares well enough with second-time starters, winning at a 13% rate, but Petit Verdot’s pedigree suggests turf might be his forte. Vancouver won the prestigious Golden Slipper (G1) and half-brother Baysider was a maiden winner sprinting on grass, so Petit Verdot—a 98-1 shot on debut—might need a surface switch to show his best.
#6 Private Island — Ian Wilkes trainee is a son of Kentucky Derby runner-up Bodemeister and is out of the Albert the Great mare Lenawee, the dam of River City H. (G3) winner Thatcher Street. Considering Thatcher Street was best on grass and Bodemeister has sired several quality turf routers, you can argue Private Island is another runner best suited to a career on the sod. Throw in the fact Wilkes strikes at just a 5% rate with first-time starters, and Private Island seems unlikely to fire his best shot sprinting on dirt in his initial appearance under colors.
#7 Frosted Prayer — The second Asmussen runner has posted just two timed workouts, but both were fast half-mile moves from the Keeneland starting gate — :47 3/5 on June 7 and :47 4/5 on June 14. His sire, Frosted, was graded stakes-placed as a juvenile, but matured to finish second in the Belmont Stakes (G1) and crush the Metropolitan H. (G1) as an older runner, showing a combination of brilliance and versatility. Dam Stormandaprayer (by speedster Songandaprayer), a stakes-placed sprinter, has foaled three winners from three starters, including a pair of juvenile winners. Lakeland Farm homebred should give stablemate Jackie’s Warrior a run for the money.
#8 Cousteau —Into Mischief was a precocious juvenile Grade 1 winner who ranked as North America’s leading sire of 2-year-olds in 2018 and 2019, at least in part because he sires 15% debut winners. Dam Paris Bikini also demonstrated early maturity, winning her debut as a juvenile, so from a pedigree perspective there’s every reason to believe Cousteau can factor on debut. Trainer Todd Pletcher strikes at a 23% rate with first-time starters and Cousteau has posted eight solid workouts over the last two months, including a :47 3/5 half-mile from the Churchill starting gate on June 5. This WinStar Farm homebred looms as the main threat to the Asmussen trainees.
#9 Paka — Dark bay colt hails from a classy and early-maturing family, considering his Kentucky Derby-winning sire Nyquist was an unbeaten champion 2-year-old and dam Kalahari Cat has foaled seven juvenile winners, including runaway Nashua (G3) victor Independence Hall. Sold for $170,000 as a yearling, Paka has cranked out eight workouts at Keeneland and the Churchill Downs training track, including a couple swift half-mile moves, but tempering enthusiasm is the fact trainer Darrin Miller has gone just 2-for-34 with first-time starters since 2016. Outside draw is a benefit, but a spot on the board might be Paka’s ceiling on debut.
