PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING
NOVEMBER 11, 2006
Fresh horses in the Breeders’ Cup
by Tim Holland
While much of the post Breeders’ Cup analysis has centered on whether or not
an unfair inside speed bias existed, some other players have been chastising
themselves for ignoring the importance of runners with back class arriving here
fresh and improving.
In 2003 Richard Mandella pulled off the remarkable feat of winning four
Breeders’ Cup races at Santa Anita including the Juvenile (G1) and Juvenile
Fillies (G1) with Action This Day (Kris S.) and Halfbridled (Unbridled),
respectively. However, it was his handling of Pleasantly Perfect (Pleasant
Colony), who won the Classic (G1), and Johar (Gone West), the dead-heat winner
of the Turf (G1), that were the most notable.
Having raced poorly twice at Santa Anita in February and March of that year,
Pleasantly Perfect did not race again until he took the Goodwood Breeders’ Cup
H. (G2) as his prep for the Classic. Dismissed at more than 14-1, the lightly
raced five-year-old recorded a lifetime-best BRIS Speed rating of 117 after he
passed Medaglia d’Oro (El Prado [Ire]) to take the Classic.
One race earlier, the year-younger Johar had followed a similar pattern when
taking the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Unlike his stablemate, Johar had run well the
previous winter, winning the Hollywood Derby (G1) and the San Marcos S. (G2).
However, he too was allowed plenty of time off in 2003, not racing from January
to August when he returned to finish last of three runners behind Sarafan (Lear
Fan) at Del Mar. Johar’s next race, the Clement L. Hirsch Memorial Turf
Championship S. (G1), was very encouraging when he led for most of the trip only
to get worn down late by the talented Storming Home (GB) (Machiavellian), which
set him up perfectly to share the Turf honors with the exceptional High
Chaparral (Ire) (Sadler’s Wells).
The “fresh horse” angle was not confined to Mandella’s runners in the 2003
Cup races. Indeed, shock Distaff (G1) winner Adoration (Honor Grades) had
prepped twice in September after having been unraced for seven months, and
Sprint (G1) victor Cajun Beat (Grand Slam) was making his second start off a
60-day layoff. Meanwhile, Filly and Mare Turf (G1) winner Islington (Ire)
(Sadler’s Wells) had not raced for more than 45 days, and Six Perfections (Fr)
(Celtic Swing), impressive winner of the Mile (G1), had not been seen for two
months.
In 2004 Ghostzapper (Awesome Again), who was carefully placed throughout his
career by trainer Bobby Frankel, and Better Talk Now (Talkin Man) won the
Classic and the Turf, respectively, each off 49-day breaks. In addition, Ouija
Board (GB) (Cape Cross [Ire]), Speightstown (Gone West) and Singletary (Sultry
Song) won their respective Cup races while making their second or third starts
off breaks of at least 60 days. The most notable of these was Singletary, who
had been laid off since May, had one prep in October and then took the Mile
honors at more than 16-1.
Last year the fresh theme continued at the Breeders’ Cup when Saint Liam
(Saint Ballado) and Silver Train (Old Trieste) both came off layoffs to win for
trainer Richard Dutrow, and Artie Schiller (El Prado [Ire]) and Shirocco (Ger)
(Monsun) were victorious making their second or third starts after being rested.
Followers of fresh horses were quickly rewarded this year in the first of the
eight Breeders’ Cup races when Dreaming of Anna (Rahy), whether helped by a
speed bias or not, led from start to finish in the Juvenile Fillies. Of all the
contestants in the 1 1/16-mile event, Dreaming of Anna had been away from the
track the longest, having not raced for 48 days. However, her trainer Wayne
Catalano owns some of the best layoff stats in the nation, winning with 31
percent of his starters that come back between 31 and 90 days away, and the
filly displayed her readiness when she worked the fastest of 71 horses over four
furlongs at Churchill Downs the previous Sunday.
Few of the runners in the Juvenile owned layoff lines in their past
performances, but in the Filly and Mare Turf, the proven champion Ouija Board
was the sole contender coming off a layoff, having not raced for 56 days.
Longshot pace factor Dancing Edie (Moscow Ballet) and French invaders Satwa
Queen (Fr) (Muhtathir [GB]) and Germance (Silver Hawk) appeared fairly fresh
making their second or third starts off breaks, although the latter was coming
back slightly quickly from a fourth-place finish in the Queen Elizabeth II
Invitational Challenge Cup S. (G1) at Keeneland 21 days earlier. In the event
Ouija Board proved that the time off since her last two hard races stood her in
good stead when she scored emphatically at the expense of her old rival Film
Maker (Dynaformer), who herself had just three prior starts this season and was
primed for this race by trainer Graham Motion.
A balance between fitness and freshness has assisted many Breeders’ Cup
Sprint winners in the past and this year was no exception. Pomeroy (Boundary),
Too Much Bling (Rubiano), Siren Lure (Joyeux Danseur) and Nightmare Affair (Out
of Place) all came here without a prior race within 45 days, and of this
quartet, Nightmare Affair fared best when finishing well to be third at odds of
nearly 30-1. However, Thor’s Echo (Swiss Yodeler), Bordonaro (Memo [Chi]) and
Attila’s Storm (Forest Wildcat) were all making their second or third starts off
breaks. While Thor’s Echo, who had previously proven his class with a
second-place finish in the Dubai Golden Shaheen S. (UAE-G1), won returning more
than $33, the other two performed well, finishing fourth and fifth respectively,
after dueling with each other early in the race.
In the Mile on the grass there were just two horses, Ad Valorem (Danzig) and
Badge of Silver (Silver Deputy), competing that had not raced for more than 45
days. The former was racing for the Irish stable of Aidan O’Brien and was
disappointing beating just one home. Badge of Silver, trained by Bobby Frankel
who sports a 29 percent win rate with runners that have not previously started
for more than 90 days, put up a great performance to finish third after
unexpectedly not being able to gain his desired position on the early lead.
Three horses came into this race making their second or third starts after a
60-day or more layoff. Free Thinking (Unbridled) was outclassed, the fancied
Gorella (Fr) (Grape Tree Road [GB]) found the trip too short at this level, but
Miesque’s Approval (Miesque’s Son) proved that he has been completely
revitalized since joining the barn of the crafty trainer Martin Wolfson at the
end of last year. Trained for five seasons by Bill Mott, Miesque’s Approval was
tough and consistent but never seemed to be top class and ran his final race for
Mott in a $50,000 claimer, finishing unplaced. In his second start for Wolfson,
the seven-year-old scored an upset win in the Sunshine Millions Turf before
finishing second to English Channel (Smart Strike) at Gulfstream and beating
Artie Schiller at Keeneland. Allowed all of July and August off after winning
the Firecracker Breeders’ Cup H. (G2) at Churchill Downs, Miesque’s Approval
returned to win the Red Bank S. (G3) before not running his best race in the
Shadwell Turf Mile S. (G1) when dead-heating for fourth as the second choice.
That prep did not take much out of him and combined with an easy summer
schedule, the seven-year-old was fresh and ready to run his lifetime best on
Saturday.
In the Distaff, Pine Island (Arch), Pool Land (Silver Deputy) and Bushfire
(Louis Quatorze) were all making their first starts in just less than sixty
days. Meanwhile Spun Sugar (Awesome Again), Round Pond (Awesome Again),
Baghdaria (Royal Academy) and Happy Ticket (Anet) were all making their second
or third starts after being laid off for at least 60 days. Sadly the complexion
of the race was changed by the breakdowns of the first two choices, Pine Island
and Fleet Indian (Indian Charlie), and by the hard-luck trip of Asi Siempre (El
Prado [Ire]), who was ultimately disqualified from her second place finish and
placed fourth.
However, it must be said that Round Pond put in a huge performance and may
have won regardless. After proving her class by winning the Acorn S. (G1) at
Belmont Park in 2005, Round Pond finished second in the Delaware Oaks (G2) after
which she did not run again until February of this year when she made two
winning starts at Oaklawn Park. These victories were followed by another layoff,
this time of more than five months, and also by a trainer change when she was
transferred from John Servis to Michael Matz. Her first start for her new
trainer was at Monmouth Park where she was beaten as the odds-on favorite, but
the sloppy track, as well as the need for a race, may have been valid excuses.
While her BRIS Speed rating for her next start, in the Beldame S. (G1), was two
points lower than that earned in her Monmouth defeat, Round Pond’s vastly
improved pace figures suggested substantial improvement. Players sharp enough to
recognize that the filly was ready to peak were rewarded with a $29.80 payoff
and those that included the patiently trained Happy Ticket may have found the
$446 exacta.
Many believed Scorpion (Ire) (Montjeu [Ire]) owned the best chance of a
strong European contingent in the Breeders’ Cup Turf against a slightly suspect
home defense. Having finished second in last year’s Irish Derby (Ire-G1) before
winning the St Leger (Eng-G1) he possessed back class and, with just one race in
the last year, he was certainly fresh for this. However, even with the skillful
handling of O’Brien in his corner, that sole race was not enough to ready him
for this test as he tired to finish fifth.
The shortest priced of the overseas invaders was Hurricane Run (Ire) (Montjeu
[Ire]) who, while very classy, could not be described as fresh. Making his
fourth start in the last 60 days, Hurricane Run’s form had been in decline since
he bravely won the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Diamond S. (Eng-G1) in
mid-summer. Interestingly, Hurricane Run’s pre-Turf schedule was almost a
carbon-copy of that of his sire’s six years earlier. Indeed, both had won the
King George before contesting the Prix Foy (Fr-G2) and then throwing in subpar
races in both the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) and the Champion S.
(Eng-G1). Furthermore, both Breeders’ Cup attempts were at Churchill Downs, both
were owned by Michael Tabor, and both started as favorite and ran poorly.
The third European invader was Red Rocks (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]), who was one
of two in the race that had not raced for 56 days. Since he just broke his
maiden in April and had never won a group or graded race, one could have faulted
Red Rocks for his lack of seasoning. However, he did display his class when
second behind the eventual Arc winner Rail Link (Dansili [GB]), and in his most
recent race he finished a creditable third in the St Leger when finding the 1
3/4-mile trip too far. Trainer Brian Meehan, who has achieved success shipping
horses to the United States in the past and sharp new owner Paul Reddam, made
the decision to skip the Arc and come to the Breeders’ Cup fresh, a move that
was rewarded with a half-length success.
Trained by Bobby Frankel, Cacique (Ire) (Danehill) was the other entrant in
the Turf that was coming here fresh, having not raced for 56 days. A full
brother to previous Filly and Mare Turf winners Banks Hill and Intercontinental,
Cacique had won the Man o’ War S. (G1) with a big late kick in his latest start
and he seemed certain to put in a good effort. However, he was well positioned
throughout but surprisingly tired in the stretch to beat only one home in a most
disappointing effort.
With many of the Classic field having been pointed to the race for several
months in advance, a good number of the runners were coming here fresh. Indeed,
five horses had not raced for more than 60 days, while a trio of three-year-olds
were making their third starts off fairly lengthy layoffs. In addition some,
such as Bernardini (A.P. Indy), had been placed on carefully planned campaigns
with their races well spaced out. While freshness is an asset, it must be
stressed that in the very best route races on the dirt (such as the Classic or
the Kentucky Derby) that are guaranteed to be run at a fast pace throughout, it
is an absolute requirement to be 100 percent fit.
Many may have considered the fact that Invasor (Arg) (Candy Stripes) had
missed his intended meeting with Bernardini in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) due
to a slight fever as a detriment to his Classic chances. However, while a look
at his workout pattern does reinforce the knowledge that there were some
problems in the weeks leading up to that intended race, it also shows four solid
works after that date. It should also be noted that trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is
one of the best in the business at winning off layoffs, scoring at 20 percent.
In all, 104 horses participated in the eight Breeders’ Cup races, of which 18
had not raced for 45 days or more. Of these 18, Dreaming of Anna, Ouija Board,
Red Rocks and Invasor were winners returning $7.20, $4.80, $23.60 and $15.40,
respectively. Meanwhile, there were 17 runners that were making their second or
third start off a layoff of at least 60 days, but that did have the benefit of a
race within the last 45 days. Thor’s Echo ($33.20), Miesque’s Approval ($50.60)
and Round Pond ($29.80) all fit into this category. It must be noted that it is
easy and often misleading to look back on results and draw conclusions. However,
by reviewing races and results one can learn, and I for one will be paying more
attention to fresh horses come next November.