Emily Gullikson takes a look at the Oaklawn Park March 19 card and provides her OptixEQ analysis.
RACE 1
#1 KOWGIRL KIRBY could get overlooked in here off the debut as she makes her second start today. Her running line does not jump off the page or hold any “obvious trouble” though showed enough run to suggest a move forward and the ability to IMPROVE off the debut. Kowgirl Kirby also holds a recency edge over her returning layoff rivals and the jump on experience over the first-time starters. As she makes her second career start from the Feb. 27 event, the sixth- and ninth-place finishers from that race came back last week with both runners nicely improving their OptixFIG to 71 and 74 and finish in place and show. Their progression from the Feb. 27 race is shown in the OptixGRID image below, and a similar improvement for Kowgirl Kirby puts her above RANGE this afternoon.
RACE 3
There are some overall concerns with #4 SHARECROPPER as the expected heavy favorite, and that could create an opportunity to play against him here. The cause for pause starts as he makes his first start off the claim and drops in class, to a $10,000 claiming tag, after a win. He was able to score that open-length win with a PERFECT trip on Jan. 22 in an effort that showed visually some REGRESS potential. That regression could play some role in the timing with that race 56 days ago. That timing is less than ideal with horses at this claiming level, and also note he returns here without showing a published work since that race. Looking at OptixPLOT, he should hold enough of a pace advantage to compete here, though given the “FORM” handicapping factor and as the expected short-price favorite, he could present vulnerable here.
On standard, #3 BULLION should be in position to press the pace Quad I Square, stretching out to a route today and also dropping significantly in class. He does not offer value with this change in distance (Diamond on Surface/Distance) as the second choice on the morning line. The presence of Sharecropper and #6 R V T THUNDER ROAD (Quad III) here should make things difficult for him to attempt to stretch his speed.
#1 CARTE BLANCHE offers some value and upside making his second start of the meet and a lateral class move from an OptixFIGRANGE standpoint. While his C OptixGRADE and 76 OptixFIG effort in the mud on Feb. 7 are not enough to get the job done here, he could improve in this spot after racing against the track profile that day and with the Quad I Square position this afternoon. #5 UNCLE GREGORY sits favorably in terms of trip tracking as a Square from Quad II with the ability to improve getting back to the main track. It should also be noted that Garcia has been sending out live runners this meet and has picked this spot after scratching out of the common race on Feb. 7 due to the track conditions and again out of a similar claiming event sprinting last week.
Both #2 ROAR OF THE LION and #7 DOWN HOME KITTEN are similar, exiting the Feb. 26 claiming event earning B- OptixGRADES and with a similar running style as Quad IV Squares. The two project to hold their form here and running on late, though they will have to step forward even as this race is a similar condition to the claiming race three weeks ago. This event holds a higher OFR of 89-83 from the race last month at 83-77 – a subtle class rise today.
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