Emily Gullikson analyzes the Indiana Grand April 21 card and provides her OptixEQ analysis.
RACE 8
The handicapping here starts with assessing the morning line favorite, #4 BETSDOWNLETSRIDE. In terms of pace he does not hold any advantage in Quad I over the other two Squares, #3 CIELO AZUL and #8 EL BOHEMIO, and will have the added early pressure (Fire Contention) from #6 MATERS N TATERS going out for a hot Cunningham barn as well. In terms of OptixFIG, his races from last season, the Past 3 Runlines, sit in today’s OptixFIGRANGE, however do not hold any edge in terms of speed over others in this field, that have run as fast or faster. Class will also be a change here as he makes his return and will face older horses in this sophomore debut. From that perspective, he could present a move forward and improve with maturity, whereas the older horses have established their form at this point. Still that would require some projections today, a projection that does not look to be compensated in terms of price.
Since the Fire Contention was noted above, #2 STOP HAMMERTIME and #7 BANDIDO DE AMORES will look to make their off-the-pace run (Quad IV) late. Even with the “Fire” the SpeedRate is still on the lower side, something that can be seen on the Plot visual with the horses below the Par Line. In addition, this five-furlong distance could leave Stop Hammertime and Bandido de Amores too much to do late as these two seem to prefer a bit more ground in their races.
RACE 9
#6 EMILY LANE is a legit contender in the Wednesday finale returning here off her 2020 form. She stands out on OptixPLOT from a pace perspective as a Large Square in Quad I, a position that fits today race shape and track profile. In addition, she fits on class and speed recording a B OptixGRADE on Sept. 23 when finishing in a photo at the wire. Her 79 OptixFIG from that place finish as well as the 84 OptixFIG from Aug. 24 not only standout in the Past 3 Runlines compared to the others in this field but are also FIG’s above today’s OptixFIGRANGE.
That Quad I Square pace advantage for Emily Lane should assist in terms of trip with perhaps her main rival #10 BUMBLE OF LOVE as a Quad IV Square. Similar to Emily Lane, Bumble of Love ran competitive (B- OptixGRADE) at this allowance condition on Nov. 19 as she showed a move forward on the main track and two-turn distance. #3 DONTYOUREMEMBER also picked up a B- OptixGRADE at this allowance level last season, however with a larger sample size of races at this condition lacked the efforts to make her a contender though still useful underneath.
Worth keeping and eye on #9 DIAMOND SOLITAIRE as she returns this afternoon to make her sophomore debut. She showed some ability last season competitive with her age group in statebred stakes company. As she returns from the 155-day layoff in her first start against older could benefit from this race moving forward later this season. Similar consideration for #8 TAPERINEA returning here from the Miss Indiana S. as well for trainer Anthony Granitz.
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