ROAD TO THE TRIPLE CROWN
FEBRUARY 16, 2005
by James Scully
Saturday’s Risen Star S. (G3) served as a coming-out party for SCIPION (A.P. Indy). The well-bred colt earned his first stakes victory with a
last-to-first rally at Fair Grounds and appears headed in the right direction
for trainer Patrick Biancone.
A three-quarter brother to undefeated champion Vindication, Scipion was
highly touted last summer after capturing his career bow at Saratoga but
finished his juvenile campaign with two uninspiring stakes attempts. He didn’t
return with much luster in his sophomore debut, finishing third in an
entry-level allowance at Santa Anita in mid-January, but Saturday’s effort
marked a major turnaround for the dark bay. Given his appealing pedigree and
room for improvement, Scipion could continue to develop into a major contender
for the Kentucky Derby (G1).
That’s the good side, but the Risen Star didn’t impress us for several
reasons.
Pedestrian sums up the final time of 1:44.54 when compared to a pair of
faster-run stakes at the 1 1/16-mile distance within an hour of the Risen Star. Scipion received only a 95 BRIS Speed rating (he’s never earned a triple-digit
figure), and the lightly raced Summerly (Summer Squall), who raced greenly while
weaving in and out through the stretch drive, did not flatter him when
needing nearly a second less to complete the Silverbulletday S. (G3) two races
earlier. Despite being a nice three-year-old filly, Summerly wasn’t expected to
upstage male counterparts with a much better final time.
Little separated the top six finishers at the wire. Runner-up REAL DANDY
(Yankee Victor) jumped up in class to surprise at 44-1. Third placer STORM SURGE (Storm
Cat) made the lead in deep stretch, but the three-time stakes winner doesn’t
want to go any farther than a mile at this stage in his career despite a
distance friendly pedigree.
The bubble burst for HARLINGTON (Unbridled), who finished sixth at 6-5, but
this would be the wrong time to sell the Derby futures. He finished only three lengths back
of the winner and owns as much upside as any of the Risen Star
contestants. The precocious colt won his first two career starts, but he had
never raced over a fast track and got caught wide
on both turns from an outside post. Inexperience finally caught up with Harlington on Saturday.
Look for him to improve significantly for Todd Pletcher.
Saturday’s Whirlaway S. attracted pre-race attention due to the presence of
Remsen S. (G2) runner-up GALLOPING GROCER (A.P. Jet), but the speedy gelding
could do no better than fourth as SORT IT OUT (Out of Place) rallied from off
the pace to the lead in midstretch and then dug in gamely to withstand runner-up
NAUGHTY NEW YORKER (Quiet American) by a neck at Aqueduct. The winner impressed
with his tenacity and a 103 Speed figure, and there’s plenty to like about the
female side of his family. He’s out of the Kris S. mare Vex, who is a
grand-daughter of stakes winner File (Tom Rolfe), the dam of Forty Niner.
Bred in New York, Sort It Out will have to be a late nominee to the Triple
Crown and still has a lot to prove. Naughty New Yorker may have hung some in the
final sixteenth, but the winner deserves kudos for his first stakes victory and
has now won three straight for conditioner Allen Iwinski.
Sunday’s seven-furlong San Vicente S. (G2) lost ROMAN RULER (Fusaichi
Pegasus) to a quarter crack, another setback for the talented Grade 2 winner who
had health issues last year. Breeders’ Futurity (G1) victor CONSOLIDATOR (Storm
Cat), who was last seen finishing a good fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
(G1), went to the gate as the even-money favorite, but FUSAICHI ROCK STAR (Wild
Wonder) proved much the best on the front end, establishing a clear early lead
en route to a one-length decision.
After being unplaced in two juvenile stakes attempts, the Bob Baffert-trained
Fusaichi Rock Star looked much improved in 2005 and could go on to be a top-class
performer. However, he’s never been two turns and isn’t bred for 10 furlongs.
His forte could prove to be at shorter distances.
Consolidator didn’t exactly fire over the wet-fast track, but he was beaten
only 2 1/2 lengths by the winner in finishing last of four. Given the colt’s
back class, trainer D. Wayne Lukas probably didn’t care much about winning this
seven-furlong race. He was just giving Consolidator a race to set him up for the
future.
As opposed to many contemporaries with accomplished horses from last season,
Lukas wants to have a fit three-year-old on the first Saturday in May. Other
trainers are intentionally keeping their runners in the barn until March and are
seriously risking bringing a short animal to Churchill. No horse in the last 20
years has won the Kentucky Derby off only a couple of preps at three.
DON’T GET MAD (Stephen Got Even) made a good impression with his runner-up
finish. The bay colt closed from far off the pace to win his first two starts
sprinting at Churchill Downs last November and offered a strong late run up the
rail to grab second here in his three-year-old bow. Bred to run long, Don’t Get
Mad earned a 116 Late Pace rating and will finally stretch out to two turns in
his next start for Ron Ellis. He’s a promising individual who could develop
rapidly.
Given the wide-open nature of this year’s Kentucky Derby picture, this is a
good year to look for a late bloomer. Many top contenders will have little room
for error while waiting on the sidelines until March for their sophomore debuts,
and there are plenty of speed-laden candidates with questionable pedigrees for 1
1/4 miles.