RACE 12 – Indiana Derby (G3):
The pace as shown with the “Red” PlotFit is not clear-cut though should not be a hinderance to #1 FULSOME positioned right in the center as a Large Square as the projected race favorite. He is legit in that role based on his class, the lone graded stakes winner and coming off the B+ OptixGRADE in the Matt Winn (G3) at Churchill Downs. His OptixFIG stack up in the higher end of RANGE and consistent overall as well as in relationship to the others in the field taking a quick glance at the Past 3 Runlines.
#7 MR. WIRELESS also has the OptixFIG in RANGE and a potential pace advantage from the Plot alone in Quad I. He is coming into this race off a solid B OptixGRADE in the Texas Derby, a race where he was WIDE and after breaking a step slow (SLOG) was not asked to contest the lead. The winner of that race, the Brad Cox-trained Warrant, was able to get the trip from off the pace and wear down a game and gritty Mr. Wireless. It is worth bringing up Warrant in terms of running lines as Fulsome was able to get the better of Warrant when those two met earlier this year in the Oaklawn S.
In terms of pace, the OptixRPM, #3 STARRININMYDREAMS is the lone “EP” runner and could try to sneaky away similar pace edge in this “Red” scenario. His has that second-call speed as the only horse positioned above the Par Line from Quad II. His OptixFIG are slightly below RANGE though has been keeping tough company this year at the graded stakes level and could translate to a hidden class advantage. This will be his first start racing on Lasix and could be the slight boost to assist him to compete against today’s group.
#6 FULL CHARGE fits with his current OptixFIG in RANGE though finds a big class test coming off the maiden win and moving into a graded stakes. Even with the recent progression and foundation, he still has things to sort out based on the visuals and that extends to timing for this race. He will wheel back in just 18 days from that maiden last month at Churchill Downs, where he was in an all-out drive to the wire despite being clear, and tough to see a move forward off that effort. The same class concerns for #2 W W CRAZY along with OptixFIG below RANGE stepping up off a maiden win to run here at the graded stakes level though could offer value of the pair positioned alongside Full Charge as a Quad III Square.
#4 CONVENTION and #5 SERMONONTHEMOUNT will come out of the common race, the Prairie Mile on June 6. Both runners slightly below in terms of class (OptixGRADES) overall and in their current form cycle. Class must be considered in terms of a win contender even as the OptixFIG are in RANGE. Tough to see higher than factoring for a minor share.
