Commentary

COMMENTARY

APRIL 17, 2013

Overshadowed Oaks deserves plenty of attention

by John Mucciolo

While the Kentucky Derby, the crown jewel of racing in the United States, is

all the rage in the weeks leading up to the first Saturday in May, this is a

good time to give the female counterparts some extra-deserved attention. A

fantastic collection of sophomore fillies is ready to converge on this year's

Kentucky Oaks, possibly the deepest field we've ever seen assembled for the

race.

Fillies have proven capable of competing with, and occasionally topping,

their male counterparts in the Triple Crown series. In 2007, the sensational

Rags to Riches defeated an outstanding field in the Belmont Stakes, besting

eventual two-time Horse of the Year Curlin in a thrilling stretch duel. The

following year, the ill-fated Eight Belles beat all but one in the Kentucky

Derby when finishing a strong second, and 2009 featured eventual Horse of the

Year Rachel Alexandra, who became the first filly in nearly a century to capture

the middle jewel of the Triple Crown when leading wire to wire in the Preakness.

The new Kentucky Derby points system makes it necessary to run against males

beforehand if more than 20 horses are entered to Derby and Grade 1 winner Pure Fun,

who is confirmed for Saturday's Lexington at Keeneland, will be the only one to

take that challenge this year. Her connections are saying that the Lexington is

strictly an Oaks prep and while we'll take them at their word for now, the

possibility remains for a Derby bid if she beats males Saturday.

We'll highlight the credentials of the top contenders in what could be the

best Oaks ever!

Dreaming of Julia comes off a scintillating performance in the Gulfstream

Oaks for Todd Pletcher, rolling home by a Secretariat-esque 21 3/4 lengths and

earning a 107 BRIS Speed figure. The well-bred sort is out of the Grade

1-winning sprinter/miler Dream Rush, but given how well she ran in her first try

at 1 1/8 miles, the Oaks distance, she surely gets enough stamina from her sire,

the incomparable A.P. Indy. While we're not implying she is faster than the

boys, it has to be stated that Julia ran two full seconds faster than the winner

of the Florida Derby, Orb, on the same card roughly two hours earlier. And the

107 Speed number is the top route stakes figure earned by ANY three-year-old

this season.

Unlimited Budget has been spotless in four lifetime tries for Pletcher, who

is heavy handed in this year's Oaks renewal. The $475,000 daughter of Street

Sense raised eyebrows with a destructive, 9 1/2-length debut win at a mile and

proceeded to capture a trio of graded races with ease, including the Fair

Grounds Oaks last out, earning a 102 BRIS Speed. The Florida-bred could be even

better than what we've seen up to this point and certainly rates as a most

exciting prospect, indeed.

Beholder, the champion juvenile filly last season, is another beast. Based in

California, she's made short work of Grade 1 rivals in her last two starts for

trainer Richard Mandella and the classy daughter of Henny Hughes could be the

Oaks winner with another step forward at Churchill Downs. The Spendthrift color

bearer is three-for-three in races at a mile or longer and will look to keep

rolling on the front end May 3.

The lightly-raced, but grossly talented, Midnight Lucky set a track record in

just her second lifetime outing at Sunland Park and has dominated both fields

she has encountered for trainer Bob Baffert. The daughter of Midnight Lute

didn't appear to be slowing at the finish of her route debut last time and we

simply have no idea of just how good this gray filly can be.

Also from the Baffert barn, Fiftyshadesofhay was a stylish heroine of the

Santa Ysabel Stakes three back, earning a 102 BRIS Speed figure. Second and

third in a pair of races since while trying to catch Beholder, the daughter of

Pulpit has been compromised by tough pace situations, but could vault forward if

she gets some hot early fractions to run at in the Oaks.

Rags-to-riches story Rose to Gold is no fluke, with five stakes wins from

seven lifetime starts, including dominant wins in the Fantasy and Honeybee in

her last two outings. A daughter of Friends Lake, the $1,400 yearling

purchase is one tough customer.

Flashy Gray hasn't done much wrong in her career outside of running into some

imposing foes in her last pair. The Bill Mott trainee, a $775,000 Keeneland

November 2012 purchase, has been well clear in second while finishing behind

Unlimited Budget and Rose to Gold and appears to own plenty of upside. The gray

daughter of Flashy Bull registered a 100 Speed number last time and is a

candidate to improve with those experiences under her belt, as well as with

another sixteenth of a mile to work with, on the first Friday in May.

Juddmonte Farms has an extremely talented filly confirmed for the Oaks in

Close Hatches. The daughter of First Defence is unbeaten in three lifetime

races, including a wire-to-wire score in the Gazelle most recently in which she

garnered a 99 Speed number. In other years, the lightly-raced Close Hatches

might be among the betting favorites. In 2013, she'll likely be an outsider of

sorts in the Oaks wagering.

Live Lively never fired last time, but she proved capable enough when beating

Dreaming of Julia on the square at Gulfstream Park two starts back in the 1

1/16-mile Davona Dale. The Mark Hennig pupil is very fast and if you are willing

to draw a line through her last race, the daughter of Medaglia d'Oro fits well

with the prospective Oaks field. She earned a 101 Speed number in the Davona

Dale.

The Kenny McPeek-trained Pure Fun proved her affinity with a fine allowance

win beneath the Twin Spires in the fall, and then capped her juvenile season

with an excellent last-to-first triumph in the Hollywood Starlet. Third when

making her seasonal debut in the Bourbonette Oaks, the daughter of Pure Prize

packs a big late kick and could be interesting in a field full of runners who

like to be forwardly placed. Her last three Speed figures -- 97, 96 and 95 --

are a few lengths shy of where she will likely need to be in a couple of weeks,

but she could show more in the Lexington.

Below is a table with four of the top horses expected to take action on Derby

Day and their Speed figures in each of their last three races, and under that

four of the top fillies and their respective Speed figures in their last trio of

races:

Colts/Geldings:

Horse		Last race		2 back		3 back
Orb		97		102		89
Verrazano		100		100		104
Normandy Invasion		99		97		104
Goldencents		106		97		93

Fillies:

Horse		Last race		2 back		3 back
Dreaming of Julia		107		99		93
Unlimited Budget		102		94		93
Midnight Lucky		98		102		n/a
Flashy Gray		100		96		98

The above chart shows that these fillies can really run!