Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

JULY 20, 2012

by Dick Powell

Saratoga opens on Friday and like everything else around here, it could use

some rain. Steeplechase races were run as part of the annual open house last

Sunday and three horses had to be euthanized. Lots of reasons why but rock-hard

turf was one of the factors.

We had some serious rain later on Sunday afternoon and a little bit overnight

on Tuesday. Other than that, it really hasn't rained in five weeks and coupled

with the heat, you will see a brown infield this year. The turf courses do get

some water but not enough to keep up with the drought this year. Nobody roots

for the races to be taken off the turf but we desperately need rain.

We have had years like this in the past and one thing I noticed was that

closers do well on the main track early in the day. As more water is put down by

the trucks, speed will do better later in the day.

The turf will play firm to hard but will not necessarily favor speed. The

best angle is to try to track how horses have run in the past on similar

courses. Very few riders will send their horses to the front to take advantage

of the course condition so it might not be the factor you think. Plus, with no

rain, the ground of the turf course gets brittle and can actually be tiring

until rain tightens it up.

The zip code for Saratoga is 12866 and you should use it for weather

forecasts. The weather up here can be amazingly sporadic with one area getting

thunderstorms while it might be sunny 10 miles away. Make sure you check radar

since many forecasts that you can research online are for the Albany area and

not specific to here.

Turf sprints will be in vogue again this meet and 41 of them were contested

last year. There was a significant speed bias of 68 percent in them but outside

posts have an edge over inside ones. Forty-one horses drew the rail in turf

sprints last year and only one of them was able to win.

Even with a speed bias, the rail is deadly since it forces a fast horse to

run even faster than they want to run. There is no chance to get a breather and

relax while pinned down to the rail and they do not hang on. The horses without

speed who draw the rail can be hopelessly trapped down on the inside with

nowhere to go.

Outside posts in turf sprints at least enable the rider to possibly get their

horse to relax some with nobody to their outside. Losing ground is better than

racing in traffic. Watch these races on replay as many times as you can while

looking for horses that have raced between horses or stuck in traffic on the

inside. You'll find a lot of horses that will improve next time out.

NYRA has limited two-year-old sprint races to eight starters. There is a

maiden race on Friday that drew 13 so there are eight starters and five

also-eligible horses. Even though they probably won't get the chance to race,

take a look at the also-eligible to get familiar with them since they should be

in the race next time it is written and you can get a head start.

Two-turn races on the main track were dominated last year by horses that had

good early speed and look for the trend to continue. With the short run into the

clubhouse turn, a quick horse can establish position without using up too much

early energy while those without will be losing ground.

Someone asked me who to look for in the rider colony that might represent

some value. I quickly answered Jose Lezcano, who is coming off a strong Belmont

meet. He rides the turf extremely well -- 21 percent winners with a flat-bet

profit -- and he will certainly get lots of opportunities to race on it up here

as long as the weather cooperates.

Another rider that might represent decent pari-mutuel value is Shaun

Bridgmohan. Kind of a last-minute addition to the rider colony, he will get

business from Mark Casse, who looks like he'll have a strong contingent at the

meet. As Casse goes, so will Bridgmohan.

The best example of a rider and trainer's dependent relationship is the pair

of Cornelio Velasquez and Linda Rice. Velasquez rides first call for Rice and,

with his ability to get horses out of the gate into the pace of the race and

Rice having many fast horses, they have been a perfect match.

Rice was ice-cold here last year since she fired most of her bullets at the

Belmont spring/summer meet. This year, she had a good Belmont meet but seems to

have some ammunition stowed away for the Spa.

Todd Pletcher had, for him, a relative quiet Belmont meet and don't be

surprised to see him come out firing bullets. He usually gets off to a great

start anyway and this year should be no exception. Chad Brown now has a fully

mature operation in the sense that he is strong in all ages and divisions. Look

for him to give Pletcher a run for his money. Christophe Clement had a

sensational Belmont meet but don't know what he has left for here.

Johnny Velazquez is just starting to get back on horses in the morning and he

wisely announced that he will only be riding a few each afternoon when he

resumes riding next week. Javier Castellano has the Pletcher operation on speed

dial and should have a great meet with quality and quantity.