Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

APRIL 24, 2009

by Dick Powell

The Kentucky Derby (G1) is coming and it's coming fast. With a full field of

20 expected to load in the gate at Churchill Downs, we'll start the process of

examining some of the horses that should be contenders for the Run for the

Roses.

QUALITY ROAD (Elusive Quality) has done little wrong in a four-race career --

three wins and a second. His last two wins at Gulfstream were spectacular and he

heads into this year's Derby as one of the major players.

His win in the Florida Derby, contested over a very hard track, caused a

quarter crack to flare up, but trainer Jimmy Jerkens and staff seem to have it

under control. His recent workouts have been strong and he goes to Churchill as

one of the true pace horses that has a chance at winning. Johnny Velazquez has

gotten him to relax in his last two starts and he should be able to avoid any

traffic problems in a bulky field.

DESERT PARTY (Street Cry ]Ire]) was a graded stakes winner on dirt last year

at Saratoga. He spent the winter in Dubai where he won his first two starts

before being upset in the U.A.E. Derby (UAE-G2) last out. He's bred to get 10

furlongs on dirt and even in his last out loss, he was still rallying gamely in

the long stretch over a track that favored speed all night.

Back in the United States, he recorded a good five-furlong workout last

Saturday over the track and picks up the riding services of Ramon Dominguez.

CHOCOLATE CANDY (Candy Ride [Arg]) has never run on dirt, but his sire loved

it going 10 furlongs and his dam sire is Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew. He

won the El Camino Real S. (G3) two starts back and then was a good second behind

PIONEER OF THE NILE (Empire Maker) in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). He finishes

his races very strong with numerous BRIS Late Pace numbers over 100 and can not

be ignored.

DUNKIRK (Unbridled's Song) won his first two career starts very impressively

and was a good second in the Florida Derby when rallying wide over a

speed-favoring track. Garrett Gomez has decided to ride Pioneer of the Nile, so

Dunkirk picks up Edgar Prado for the Derby. Trainer Todd Pletcher has said he is

the best horse he has ever run in the Derby, but his negative is that he takes a

long time to achieve top speed and in a bulky field he doesn't appear to be

handy enough to make his own luck.

FRIESAN FIRE (A.P. Indy) is a forgotten horse that hasn't run since the March

14 Louisiana Derby (G2). He's been real good since stretching out to two turns

with blinkers added and trainer Larry Jones is adept at having his horses ready

for the big stage. His workouts this month have been good and he should be able

to race in the second tier of horses without wasting too much energy.

I WANT REVENGE (Stephen Got Even) prospered when he left California and

headed East. He won both starts at Aqueduct with fast BRIS Speed figures and Joe

Talamo fits him like a glove. The negative on him is that he may have already

fired his best shots and could be in a downward form cycle. If he runs back to

his NY form, he's right in it.

SUMMER BIRD (Birdstone) broke his maiden in his second career start and

two-turn debut at Oaklawn and then came back there to rally strongly to get

third in the Arkansas Derby (G2). He's a one-dimensional closer, but his BRIS

Late Pace numbers in all three starts were very good. If there is any more

improvement in this lightly-raced colt, he's not impossible in the exotics.

MUSKET MAN (Yonaguska) has won his two starts in very professional manner and

despite a speedy pedigree gives every indication that he can handle more

distance. His win in the Illinois Derby (G2) was excellent as he came home very fast

while holding Giant Oak (Giant's Causeway) at bay.

PIONEEROF THE NILE has been written about enough in this

space. Let's just say that I'm now more confident than ever in his chances. My

only worry is that with Gomez picking him to ride, he'll suddenly become the hot

horse in the betting pool. I was hoping to get around 8-1 on him, but now I am

not so sure.

HOLD ME BACK (Giant's Causeway) won the Lane's End S. (G2) two starts

back in his seasonal debut then rallied for second in the Blue Grass (G1). His

lone start on dirt last year was dreadful, but at least it looks like he's on an

upward form cycle. Trainer Bill Mott is not known for getting young horses ready

for the classic races, but this one has been handled perfectly. While his ability

to run on dirt will be the big factor, rest assured that Mott will have him

ready for 10 furlongs.

GENERAL QUARTERS (Sky Mesa) will be the feel-good story of this year's Derby

with his retired school teacher owner/trainer trying to win the Derby with a

one-horse stable at the age of 75. He rallied from far back to win the Blue

Grass and beat Musket Man earlier this year at Tampa Bay Downs. He's had 11 starts in his career so he is more seasoned than most and has shown good firm on

dirt.

Unlike other years when you had to rely on other people's opinions on how

horses are working out, you can now watch them yourself through various

electronic means. I like to see a fast workout over the Churchill Downs strip no

matter how much it might be changed on the first Saturday in May. It shows a

horse that has acclimated well to his/her new environment and is showing energy

days before the big race.

My final piece of advice is to spend more time watching replays and analyzing

past performances and less time reading what the connections of the horses are

saying. After the Derby has been run, go back and read what they had to say and

you will wonder why you read it in the first place.