Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

NOVEMBER 26, 2005

by Dick Powell

If you live in the cold weather, you know the 2005 horse racing season is

about to end. Here outside of Saratoga Springs, New York, on Thanksgiving Day,

we had five inches of snow and subzero wind chill temperatures.

But Saturday at Aqueduct and Churchill Downs represents one final glimpse of

high-quality racing, and we will savor it. Both tracks have major juvenile races

for both sexes going two turns and Aqueduct has the Cigar Mile (G1), which has

become the late season version of the Metropolitan H. (G1).

At Churchill Downs, the closing day card has the Golden Rod S. (G2) for

juvenile fillies going 1 1/16 miles on the main track and the Kentucky Jockey

Club S. (G2) at the same distance two races later. FRENCH PARK (Ecton Park), a

monster winner in her career debut at Keeneland, won the Pocahontas S. (G3) in

her second start going a mile at Churchill as the 2-1 favorite. She draws

inside, gets the red-hot Mark Guidry in the irons and owns a strong two-turn

dirt pedigree.

TIZTIMETOKINECT (Tiznow) broke her maiden by over 19 lengths last out in a

long sprint at Keeneland in her second start for Mark Hubley. She's trained well

since then and her sire is off to a great start with juveniles that have been

able to prosper going longer. BEAU DARE (Military) won the Kentucky Cup Juvenile

Filly S. two starts back at Turfway Park and was cooked by fast fractions last

out. She draws the rail and gets Churchill's leading rider, Rafael Bejarano, who

will ride her for the first time. She'll be tough to catch but might have some

company on the lead.

SABATANI (Five Star Day) broke her maiden by five lengths by coming from far

off the pace in a one-mile maiden race here in very good time for Patrick

Biancone. She's trained well since then and gets first-time Lasix. If she hadn't

already won first out going a mile, I might question her pedigree, but Biancone

is always great at getting his juveniles to mature early.

The always dangerous Todd Pletcher sends out MAGNIFICENT SONG (Unbridled's

Song) off a sharp maiden win at Belmont going a mile. She draws inside and has

enough tactical speed to stalk the pace while saving ground. Her dam is a

half-sister to three stakes winners going long and she should improve in her

two-turn debut.

I was impressed by Sabatini's debut win going a mile and she'll be tough to

handle if she shows any of the usual improvement second time out. Biancone's

juveniles are always at their best in their first couple of starts. Her outside

post shouldn't matter if Gary Stevens takes her back, and there's more than

enough speed to stretch the field out and avoid a traffic jam on the first turn.

French Park will be the filly to beat and a worthy favorite. We'll try a

trifecta wheel with Sabatini on top and Beau Dare, Magnificent Song, French Park

and Tiztimetokinect underneath in the next two spots.

In the Kentucky Jockey Club, a field of eight juvenile males will go postward.

PRIVATE VOW (Broken Vow) is one of two graded stakes winners in the field and

has dangerous early speed. Throw out his last effort in the Breeders' Cup

Juvenile (G1) when his rein broke and Johnny Velazquez could not control him.

His prior efforts going seven furlongs were excellent and he's trained

brilliantly for Steve Asmussen at Churchill. Shaun Bridgmohan picks up the

mount.

CATCMOINATCHA (Tale of the Cat) eked out a neck win over HIGH COTTON (Dixie

Union) last out in the Iroquois S. (G3), going a mile in good time. He's been

racing from off the pace lately after breaking his maiden by 15 lengths going

gate-to-wire, but loses Bejarano.

High Cotton just missed last out going a mile despite contesting very fast

fractions. He draws the rail, has a good race over the track and only has to

tote 116 pounds because of that narrow loss.

Bejarno picks up the mount on GREAT POINT (Point Given) for Nick Zito. Great

Point broke his maiden by nearly nine lengths in his career debut going short

then failed miserably in the Nashua S. (G3) going a one-turn mile at Belmont

last out. Being by a Belmont winner and trained by Zito, he has every right to

get better with the races going two turns and he draws the inside.

HYTE REGENCY (Diligence) went on a roll when tried on turf in his second

start and he promptly won twice. He tired in his last start at Keeneland, but

he's bred very strong for the dirt and the three route turf races should have

him ready for an improved effort here.

We'll key High Cotton with a win bet and then protect with exactas, playing

Great Point and Catcominatcha over him.

At Aqueduct, most juveniles are being asked to go nine furlongs for the first

time. The Demoiselle attracted only five juvenile fillies, and Todd Pletcher

will send out LOVE LOCKET (Thunder Gulch), who is out of the Grade 1-winning

mare Love Lock (Silver Ghost). After showing nothing in her career debut going

six furlongs, she's won here last three starts -- all going two turns. Thunder

Gulch is a quality of source of stamina in today's pedigree and his daughter has

shown an ability to run on the lead or sit off the pace. Garrett Gomez rides for

the first time.

WAIT A WHILE (Maria's Mon) won the off-the-turf Miss Grillo S. last out by

six lengths going the distance and draws the rail with Jerry Bailey. Pletcher,

trainer of Love Locket and Wait a While, will also saddle CINDERELLA'S DREAM

(Prime Timber), a New York-bred with BRIS Speed figures that make her very

competitive with these.

Mark Hennig sends out another daughter of Thunder Gulch with BETTER NOW, won

won the Tempted S. (G3) going a mile last out. She has the best late kick of

this group but will need the race to set up for her. Rick Dutrow is looking for

another Sis City (Slew City Slew) with WONDER LADY ANNE L (Real Quiet), who

tries two turns for the first time when making her second start off a layoff.

Of the three Pletcher trainees, I like Wait a While the most. Winning an

off-the-turf stake is not always the toughest race, but her maiden win going a

mile on the turf was impressive. She finishes her races well, and the rail and

Bailey should enable her to get a good trip. Play her to win.

The last major juvenile race at Aqueduct is the Remsen, which is being run

for the 92nd time. It attracted a field of eight and only one graded stakes

winner, BLUEGRASS CAT (Storm Cat), who won the Nashua S. (G3) last out in good

time. His dam, She's a Winner (A.P. Indy), is a full sister to two graded stakes

winner going long so distance should be no problem. He draws the rail and

Pletcher will give a leg up to Johnny V. A win here and Bluegrass Cat is one of

the choices in next year's Kentucky Derby (G1) future wagering.

PEGASUSBYSTORM (Fusaichi Pegasus) won a two-turn stake at the Meadowlands

last out in good time. Michael Matz is a very patient trainer and you would be

correct to assume that this colt could still be improving. PARKHIMONBROADWAY (Ecton

Park) is a New York-bred who tries two turns for the first time and certainly

has the pedigree for it. Michael Hushion has been red-hot all year. FAGAN'S

LEGACY (Monarchos) is a stoutly-bred colt that won his last two stakes going

long and could be a stretch factor with Joe Bravo aboard.

Bluegrass Cat looks like a legitimate major horse and will be hard to beat in

here. We'll play him in a straight exacta over Pegasusbystorm.

Without a major horse, the Cigar Mile drew a contentious field of 11.

Sprinters stretching out, route horses dropping back, turf horses switching to

dirt and three-year-olds trying older horses. Good luck. They might as well run

this race at Churchill Downs because that's where it belongs.

BADGE OF SILVER (Silver Deputy) returns off a 161-day layoff for Bobby

Frankel. At first glance, he appears to be the most talented horse in the field

but the layoff at the age of five concerns me. However, Frankel wins an

extraordinary 31 percent off long layoffs, he's working brilliantly and Bailey

stays with him.

PURGE (Pulpit) returns to New York after having a meltdown at Saratoga in the

detention barn. Aqueduct's detention barn only requires a five-hour stay and

oppressive heat will not be a factor. Still, it's cause for concern. When he's

on his game, Purge is as good as anyone but not even Pletcher has been able to

get any consistency out of him. Maybe a one-turn mile will be right up his

alley.

MASS MEDIA (Touch Gold) won the Forego S. (G1) two starts back going seven

furlongs at Saratoga and had a fast win over the track last year in the Sport

Page H. (G3). A mile should be perfect for him and the cagey Frankel has gone

out and secured Alex Solis to ride him.

SCRAPPY T (Fit to Fight) has been most known as the horse who almost knocked

down Afleet Alex (Northern Afleet) in the Preakness (G1), but he's been running

very strong lately. He exits a runner-up effort in the Discovery H. (G3) in

which he carved out very fast fractions into a strong headwind on Breeders' Cup

Day, and he looks very dangerous here. IMPERIALISM (Langfuhr) was a sharp winner

at Del Mar going seven furlongs in fast time before a failed attempt at 10

furlongs. He made up some ground with a wide rally in the Breeders' Cup Sprint

(G1) and has continued to train well for Kristin Mulhall.

When a race is as tough as the Cigar Mile, it pays to avoid the ones that

figure to get bet and look for prices. I'm going to bet Scrappy T win and place

and then key him in a trifecta wheel over Imperialism, Badge of Silver, Purge

and Mass Media.