Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

SEPTEMBER 26, 2008

by Dick Powell

With a month to go, many of the major Breeders' Cup prep races will be run

this weekend. And Santa Anita leads the way with six Grade 1 stakes races on

Saturday -- two on the turf and four on the newly-installed Pro-Ride racing

surface.

Leading off the action will be the Clement Hirsch Memorial Turf Championship

(G1) for three-year-olds and up going 1 1/4 miles. At this configuration, the

starting gate is right on the far turn and as soon as the field breaks, they

have to cross the main track and then take a hard left. This year's Hirsch only

attracted a field of seven so they should navigate through the first furlong

uneventfully. SPRING HOUSE (Chester House) makes his third start off the layoff

for Julio Canani and looks to make it three straight on this turf course. Todd

Pletcher ships RED GIANT (Giant's Causeway) from New York off a sharp win in the

Fourstardave H. (G2) and Johnny Velazquez gives up a major Saturday in New York

to drum up business for the Breeders' Cup. The winner of the Virginia Derby (G2)

last year will only be making his second start of the year and he's been

terrific going 10 furlongs.

The Lady's Secret S. (G1) is up next for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles

on the Pro-Ride. It has a field of five but will be a duel between the

undefeated ZENYATTA (Street Cry [Ire]) and HYSTERICALADY (Distorted Humor). With

a small field and the big money a month away, Garrett Gomez has a huge pace

advantage aboard Hystericalady. She can run on the lead or rate just off it but

against this field it looks like Gomez can make it easily and cruise along

uncontested. The question then becomes does Mike Smith ask Zenyatta for all

she's got to preserve her undefeated record, but risk using her too much, or

does he ride her conservatively to keep her fresh for the Breeders' Cup Ladies'

Classic (G1)? I say it won't matter and Hystericalady will end Zenyatta's

undefeated streak at seven.

Sprinters go next in the Ancient Title S. (G1), a real head-scratcher with

all eight entrants having a legitimate shot. IDIOT PROOF (Benchmark) is the

defending champ and comes in here off a fast second in a five-furlong turf

sprint at Del Mar last out. David Flores gets off Idiot Proof to ride STREET

BOSS (Street Cry [Ire]) who comes into the race on a five-race winning streak

including two Grade 1 wins in a row. He was able to overcome a poor start from

post 1 last out at Del Mar but I don't think he'll be able to do it again over

the more glib Pro-Ride.

Juvenile fillies are next in action going 1 1/16 miles on the Pro-Ride in the

Oak Leaf S. (G1). A field of 12 will attempt to negotiate two turns -- one has

gone two turns on turf and one has gone two turns on Polytrack at Del Mar.

Everyone else is stretching out for the first time. STARDOM BOUND (Tapit) has

broken slow in all three career starts but was able to come from dead last to

win the Del Mar Debutante (G1) last out. She draws post 2, so at least Smith can

save ground on the first turn but she'll need some racing luck to get clear

sailing without having to circle the field. I think she's vulnerable and will

look elsewhere. PALACIO DE AMOR (Dixieland Band) is a speedball that broke her

maiden two starts back then had the lead to the deep stretch in the Debutante.

She will be the one to catch. EMPRESSIVE LADY (Empire Maker) broke her maiden

two starts back when blinkers were added then pressed the pace of the Debutante

out in the middle of the track from post 12. Out of an A.P. Indy mare, she

certainly has the pedigree to stretch out. MAGIC ROBERTA (Elusive Quality) ran

well in a fast maiden race last out and her pace profile shows she should

stretch out nicely.

The Yellow Ribbon S. (G1) attracted a field of 10 fillies and mares going 10

furlongs on the turf. WAIT A WHILE (Maria's Mon) is undefeated in two starts on

the Santa Anita turf course and she won her last start at Saratoga very nicely.

Unfortunately, she drew post 10 and Velazquez is going to have to send her

early. BLACK MAMBA (NZ) (Black Minnaloushe) won the John C. Mabee H. (G1) last

out at Del Mar and is in career-best form.

The Goodwood S. (G1) might not have attracted BIG BROWN (Boundary) or CURLIN

(Smart Strike), but nine older horses and two three-year-olds are going to use

it as their prep for the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1). WELL ARMED (Tiznow) came

back from a good third in the Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1) with a sharp win in the

San Diego H. (G2) before being run down in the final yards of the Pacific

Classic (G1). The 1 1/8 miles of the Goodwood is perfect for him and he should

get a clear, stalking trip from post 7. TIAGO (Pleasant Tap) returns off a

freshening for John Shirreffs. He won this race last year and is training

bullets for his first start in 91 days. MAST TRACK (Mizzen Mast) won the

Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) two starts back and then ran evenly while wide in the

Pacific Classic. He draws post 11 Saturday, and even though his workout pattern

looks strong, I doubt if owner/trainer Bobby Frankel will have him at 100

percent with the Classic four weeks later. SURF CAT (Sir Cat) chased Well Armed

two starts back to be second and then faded in the Pacific Classic after making

a strong middle move. He's another one that should benefit from the nine

furlongs. SLEW'S TIZNOW (Tiznow) was a sharp juvenile last year when he was

second in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) in his two-turn debut. He was off until

the end of the Del Mar meet when he won the El Cajon S. last out going a mile in

fast time. He'll get tested for class on Saturday but he has the look of an

improving horse that should only get better with distance.

Belmont Park's quintet of Grade 1 stakes races will probably be marred by an

East Coast storm system that is supposed to dump tons of rain on Friday and

Saturday. The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational (G1) and the Flower Bowl

Invitational (G1) will be run on rain-soaked turf courses if they stay on the

turf. Earlier in the Belmont meet, TOUGH TIZ'S SIS (Tiznow) won the Ruffian H.

(G1) over a sealed sloppy track by more than 12 lengths in 1:40.46 for 1 1/16

miles. Last Saturday, after a workout, it was announced that her career was

over.

If I was Jess Jackson, majority owner of Curlin, I would be very nervous.

Yes, a win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) would make Curlin the first American

horse to surpass $10 million in earnings. But if he has to run 10 furlongs over

a rock-hard sealed wet track, it can't be good for his future.