Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

APRIL 15, 2011

by Dick Powell

When a filly or mare beats males around the world, it is reported as dog

bites man. In America, when a filly or mare beats males, it is reported as man

bites dog.

Last weekend, we saw Black Caviar beat males, again, in the Group 1 T.J.

Smith Stakes in Australia to run her record to 12 for 12. Shamrocker won the

Group 1 AJC Australian Derby earlier on the card at Randwick

against males going 1 1/2 miles. This coming weekend, More Joyous goes for her fifth Group 1 stakes win against males when she contests the Doncaster

Mile at Randwick.

Can you imagine a trainer over here running a daughter of More Than Ready

five times in eight weeks against male competition? But, outside of America,

it's business as usual -- dog bites man.

I say all this, way too late in the game to have any real meaning, that if I

owned a top three-year-old filly this season and watched last weekend's Grade 1 Kentucky

Derby prep races, I might be telling my trainer to get ready for the first

Saturday in May and not the first Friday. The more this group of males races,

the more questions that are raised.

Yes, Uncle Mo was beaten in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at

Aqueduct on Saturday. And now we find out that he has a gastro-intestinal

infection that might compromise his chances of even running in the Derby. But,

it was the pedestrian nature of the Wood and its West Coast counterpart, the

Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, that should give anyone with a top three-year-old filly

the confidence to run for the Roses instead of the Lilies.

I never thought Uncle Mo would get the 10 furlongs of the Derby, but I never

thought he would run as bad as he did in the Wood. He took the lead out of the

gate going into the first turn and despite not using up much energy, he had his

head cocked sideways for most of the trip and never looked comfortable. When he

was challenged in the deep stretch, he had nothing left and was beaten soundly

by Toby's Corner and Arthur's Tale.

Toby's Corner earned a modest BRIS Speed rating of 97, which is way below his

career-best 103 that he earned in the Whirlaway Stakes. Arthur's Tale came out of the

race with an injury and will not be going to Kentucky. And Uncle Mo is supposed

to continue training while being treated for his GI infection. I doubt if he'll

be on the plane next Monday for Louisville.

In the Santa Anita Derby, Bob Baffert took Midnight Interlude from a maiden

win in his third career race to Grade 1 success when he wore down a very game

Comma to the Top to win by a head and thrust himself

into the Derby picture. Mr. Commons ran another good race in

third while stuck down on the rail for the last six furlongs.

Midnight Interlude earned a BRIS Speed rating of 98, which is his career

best, but will have to improve even more to be a factor in the Derby.

Out at Hawthorne, Joe Vann shipped up from Maryland for Todd Pletcher and won

the Grade 3 Illinois Derby by four lengths covering the nine

furlongs in 1:51.91. For that effort, Joe Vann earned a BRIS Speed rating of 98,

which is a career best for him.

This coming weekend, Baffert will send out The Factor in the Grade 1 Arkansas

Derby against a dozen others. Dominant winner of the Grade 2 Rebel last out at Oaklawn in his two-turn debut, The Factor has a big chance to vault

to the top of the polls of his division if he can relax on the lead like he did

in his last start. With $1 million on the line, anything could happen but it

would be suicidal for anyone to challenge him early.

That said, I have the sneaking suspicion that Pletcher will send Dance City to the front and keep The Factor company to try to set it up for

Brethren. Brethren looked bad last out in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby when he never relaxed, but will add blinkers here for the first time. He

finally draws an inside post position, so there will be no excuses for him on

Saturday.

The other horse in the Arkansas Derby on my radar screen is Elite Alex, who had no shot trying to rally from far back in the

Grade 2 Louisiana Derby but still was able to close from 12th to fourth while on the far outside. Tim

Ritchey adds blinkers for the first time, and he worked great in them. He

returns off a three-week break and should be in contact with the field while

saving ground early. I like the fact that he has three races going two turns

already this year and would be considered a grizzled veteran by today's

standards.

The Grade 1 Blue Grass will be run at Keeneland on Saturday, and a full field

of 12 is expected to compete. The morning line favorite is Santiva, who won his

two-turn debut on dirt last November at Churchill when winning the Grade 2

Kentucky Jockey Club and then was a wide second in the Grade 2 Risen Star this year at the Fair Grounds. He's bred to go longer and should

still have some gas in the tank in his second start of the season. The Keeneland

Polytrack should be no problem since he was a good second here last year in the

Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity behind a runaway winner.

I doubt if Rick Porter is going to enter Joyful Victory in this

year's Derby, but why not? She has two wins this year by wide margins and

dominated the Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn last Sunday by seven easy

lengths. On top of her 11-length win in the Grade 3 Honeybee when she earned a monster 111 BRIS Speed rating, she would be a major factor in the Derby if Porter were to

enter her.

The leader of the three-year-old filly division, Kathmanblu,

was upset in the Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland last Saturday. Keeneland had heavy

rain at the start of their card on Saturday and speed was a big advantage to

have. Lilacs and Lace went gate to wire to pull off the 48-1

shocker as Kathmanblu tried to rally out in the middle of the track and could do

no better than third.

Considering how the male sophomore division is doing, I would hope that

Joyful Victory and Kathmanblu receive serious consideration from their

connections to run in the Derby. Anywhere else in the world, there would be no

question which direction they would go in.