Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

JUNE 3, 2011

by Dick Powell

You are reading this column since you went to the Handicapper's Edge

section of Brisnet.com and

I hope that you are taking advantage of all the other great information that is

provided here.

One advantage that BRIS gives you above any other source of information is

context. You not only get detailed information on the horses through their past

performances, but detailed information on the racetrack and the races

it is running.

In the "At A Glances" section on the left-hand column, you can quickly see

how formful a racetrack has been playing. For all the major tracks currently

running, it not only gives you the percentage of winning favorites but the

average odds of the winner and how often the favorite finishes in the money. "At

A Glances" even gives you the average winning payoff for all the various mutuel

pools. Do you know anywhere else this data is available to the player for free?

But, wait, there's more. Track Bias statistics are provided for the entire

meet and for the past week. For instance, at Belmont Park, it tells us that for

58 six-furlong dirt races, 31 percent have been won gate to wire, for 18

seven-furlong dirt races, 39 percent were won gate to wire and for 31 one-mile

dirt races, 23 percent were won gate to wire. Yet, on the turf, in 20 turf

sprints, 20 percent were won gate to wire and in 28 turf routes, only 14 percent

were won gate to wire. It also tells you which post positions did the best for

each distance.

If you know beforehand that a track has had a high percentage of winning

favorites, you can adjust your wagering strategies by focusing on which

favorites look the strongest and shorten your tickets by not going too deep. Bet

more money on fewer combinations in these instances. If a racetrack has a

lower-than-normal percentage of winning favorites, you might want to go deeper

on your tickets and play more combinations.

For each racetrack, "At A Glances" tells you which trainers and jockeys are

hot and which ones are not. For instance, at Belmont Park, Linda Rice has had 15

starters the past two weeks and she has won six times. The average odds of her

15 starters was 5.59-1 and three of her six winners were favorites. It does

this for the jockeys and then shows you which ones have not been hot lately.

Another section of the Handicapper's Edge that I like to use is "BRIS Stats."

Here you can check on the top BRIS Speed ratings and Class ratings from the

prior week for various distances, surfaces and gender.

"BRIS Stats" also gives you the top trainer/jockey combinations across

America for the past 60 days. For instance, Tom Amoss is 18-for-36 when he rides Leandro Goncalves the past two months. Finally, "BRIS Stats" lists the hottest

trainers in the country the past 60 days. Some are household names like Tony

Dutrow and Jamie Ness. The rest you would be hard pressed to know which circuit

they are training on unless that is where you are playing.

The last section of the Handicapper's Edge that I check each week is the

"Belmont Notebook." As many races as I watch from there, it always pays to have

another set of eyes examining the races there and coming up with various

conclusions. John Mucciolo does a great job with tracking trends and noting

horses to watch.

All this information is available and free of charge to anyone that has a

Brisnet.com account. It's worth reading each week for the circuit that you are

playing and even printing out to save.

The Metropolitan H. (G1) has always been one of my favorite races and

last Monday's was no exception. A balanced field of 11 met going the

one-turn mile at Belmont Park and six horses went off at single-digit odds.

TIZWAY (Tiznow) was 6-1 on the morning line but the betting public could not

get enough of him and bet him down to 31-10 favoritism. Breaking from post

11 and right next to Tackleberry (Montbrook), who looked to be the one to

catch, Tizway looked to many that correctly judged that he would get a perfect

trip from there.

Rajiv Maragh broke him alertly and he prompted chased Tackleberry down the

long backstretch run. What makes the Met Mile so tough is that the pace horses

are in gear for most of the race but many build up enough momentum that they are

hard to pass. I like to see fast paces in these races for the front-runners to

have a chance and Tackleberry and Tizway obliged.

The second quarter mile was run in :22.40 and the third quarter run around the

far turn was a brutal 23.09. No one was making up any ground from the rear since

no one was capable of running a third quarter in 22 and change. When Tackleberry

finally gave it up, Tizway had a clear and insurmountable lead and cruised to a

2 3/4-length win over a rallying Rodman (Malibu Moon), who has returned from a

14-month layoff with three good races this year.

Tizway's final time was a sensational 1:32.90. Trained in Saratoga by Jim

Bond, he will point for the Whitney H. (G1) there going nine furlongs.