Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

DECEMBER 29, 2006

by Dick Powell

Santa Anita kicked off its 70th season of racing with its traditional

day-after-Christmas opening before 32,931 fans. The large crowd was treated to a

terrific day of racing highlighted by the Malibu S. (G1) for three year olds

going seven furlongs.

A field of 12 faced the starter with four horses taking most of the betting

money. Brother Derek (Benchmark) was the 5-2 favorite off a stellar record over

the Santa Anita main track and a good effort last out in the Breeders' Cup

Classic (G1). He was a question mark turning back to seven furlongs but had the

services of new rider Garrett Gomez, who had already won four races on the card.

Second in the wagering was Midnight Lute (Real Quiet), winner of three of

four lifetime starts, including the Perryville S. (G3) at Keeneland last out in

a long sprint. Trained by Bob Baffert, the dark bay showed a troubling tendency

to break slowly, but his workout pattern coming into the Malibu was strong even

by Baffert standards.

The third wagering choice was Arson Squad (Brahms), who earlier this year won the

nine-furlong Swaps Breeders' Cup S. (G2) at Hollywood Park and captured a very

fast allowance sprint last out over the track. Another horse for the course, he

was working bullets for Bruce Headley and wound up with the riding services of

Brother Derek's regular rider, Alex Solis.

The other entrant who was in single-digit odds was LATENT HEAT (Maria's Mon)

for Bobby Frankel and Edgar Prado. He was certainly on the radar screen last

year for the classics, but Frankel kept him going short until July, when he ran

second at Monmouth in his two-turn debut. After two more wins in long sprints,

he tired badly in his last out at Keeneland in the Perryville over the Polytrack.

Latent Heat had shown an ability to run well fresh so his 74 days

off since his last start was a blessing. With Prado coming cross country to ride

and a series of strong workouts, he looked especially appealing at odds of

57-10.

I wound up keying Spring at Last (Silver Deputy), who was bet down to 17-1

after being 23-1 for much of the betting. The sophomore drew the far outside,

was carrying three more pounds than originally assigned as Corey Nakatani could

not make 115 pounds and was making his graded debut.

Despite all that, Spring at Last's last start was a sensational win at

Aqueduct going a mile in 1:33 and change where he earned a huge BRIS Speed

figure of 109. Now in California with Doug O'Neill, he had the look of a

lightly-raced colt who could still be improving.

At the start, Latent Heat broke well from his outside post and Prado cleverly

reined him in without a fight. Latent Heat settled into third place while clear

on the outside behind pacesetters Sailors Sunset (Petionville) and Da Stoops

(Distorted Humor). That pair covered the first quarter in :22.33 and the half in

:45.08, relatively mild fractions for a Grade 1 sprint.

With the slow pace and big field, things got pretty crowded around the far

turn and Brother Derek not only could not find any room but was racing

uncomfortably while in traffic. Usually in front going two turns, he was in

midpack with horses all around him and nowhere to go.

Nakatani had Spring at Last on the far outside from post 12 and began to make

up ground with three furlongs to go. Prado made his move with Latent Heat

turning for home and with the speed collapsing and Brother Derek having no place

to go, the race was over. Spring at Last was carried wide at the top of the

stretch and was still able to gamely get second, completing the $81.10 exacta

($1).

One reason why Bobby Frankel is in the Hall of Fame is that he has owners who

have patience and do not force him to run horses before they are ready. Frankel

backed off Latent Heat after running third to Brother Derek in the Santa

Catalina S. (G2) in March and skipped the Triple Crown races. The colt has been

given time to grow and mature, and he's now a Grade 1 stakes winner for

owner/breeder Juddmonte Farms.

Like most Juddmonte homebreds, Latent Heat has a deep pedigree. His dam,

True Flare (Capote), was a stakes winner in France at two and three, and was

then a multiple Grade 2 winner in the United States at three. Latent Heat is her

fourth registered foal to race and her second foal, Art Master (Royal Academy),

was undefeated in four starts in France in 2004 and 2005, winning Group 3 events

at ages three and four.

True Flare is a sister to five other stakes winners, four of whom were graded

winners. With his second dam sired by Mr. Prospector and third dam sired by

Buckpasser, Latent Heat's female family traces back to Greentree Stables.

Despite Latent Heat's strong female pedigree and his sire already producing a

Kentucky Derby (G1) winner in Monarchos, Frankel was uncertain as to where to

run Latent Heat next. The rest of the Strub Series is at two turns and Frankel

will probably skip it to keep his charge ready for an engagement on Memorial Day

in the Metropolitan H. (G1).

DEEP IMPACT (Sunday Silence) may have saved his best race for last when he

dominated the Arima Kinen (Jpn-G1) at Nakayama Race Course in Japan before

117,251 fans. The $2,915,970 Arima Kinen is the last big race on the Japanese

racing calendar and it was in this race last year that Deep Impact suffered his

first career loss when second to Heart's Cry.

On Sunday, Yutaka Take took Deep Impact way back early behind a very fast

pace in the about 1 9/16-mile race. He began to pick up horses on the outside

with six furlongs to go and, nearing the top of the stretch, Take received an

electrifying response when asking his mount to run.

Deep Impact leveled off as he reached out to grab the firm turf and passed

the field with embarrassing ease. He covered his last 300 meters (almost three

furlongs) in :33.8 and his final time was 2:31.9. Left in his wake were five

Group 1 winners, including the top two finishers from this year's Melbourne Cup

(Aus-G1).

Deep Impact now heads off to stud with a record of 14-12-1-0 and more than

$13 million in earnings. He had a great career and his lasting legacy will be

the wave of Japanese runners who will take on international competition in the

world's major races. He single-handedly revived Japanese racing and breeding and

should take up the throne that his sire Sunday Silence left when he passed away

a few years ago.