Head to Head Analysis

HEAD TO HEAD ANALYSIS

AUGUST 19, 2011

by Ed DeRosa

When it comes to my head to head wagering strategies, the bet would be more

aptly named hard headed wagering or headed to humbled wagering since my one for

four record on the novelty bet Saturdays at Del Mar has returned just nine units

for every 20 bet.

Of my three misses, I was just plain wrong on one of them (Burns), but easily

should have reversed course on the other whiffs (Ultra Blend and Acclamation).

In week three, St Trinians (GB) clearly was not the same horse she was early

last year and off form. At the price, she was not the proper play against Ultra

Blend, who won the Clement L. Hirsch (G1) outright.

In week one, the scratch of Celtic Princess (Brz) left Acclamation as the

lone speed. Granted, I cautioned against handicapping the head to head horses as

a match race, but when a horse is clearly going to race on an uncontested lead,

it doesn't matter how many other horses you're evaluating -- lone speed is an

advantage especially when talking about a Grade 1 winner.

This week's match-up occurs in the Del Mar Oaks, a Grade 1 event for

three-year-old fillies going 1 1/8 miles on the turf. The winner of this race --

especially if its any of the top five finishers from the American Oaks (G1) -- is

technically the leader of the division, though most think that mantle will

ultimately pass through Winter Memories, who has yet to face Grade 1 competition

but is largely considered best in this boutique division.

The head to head horses this week have crossover with both the American Oaks

and Winter Memories, as Entrustment finished fourth, beaten just a neck behind

the dead heating duo of Nereid and Cambina, in the July 16 race at Hollywood

Park, and Celestial Kitten was second, beaten three lengths, behind Winter

Memories in the Sands Point (G2) on May 30 at Belmont Park. Celestial Kitten was

in the barn of Chad Brown then but is with Ben Cecil now.

On class alone Entrustment has a clear edge. Both are just graded

stakes-placed, but Celestial Kitten has never been within a length of the Grade

1 animals. Entrustment was just a neck behind and she actually finished about a

half-length in front of American Oaks beaten favorite and Grade 3 winner Bizzy

Caroline, who also returns for the Del Mar Oaks.

There is certainly enough pace in the race for Celestial Kitten to make a

bold move, but her Late Pace figures on the BRISnet.com Ultimate PPs are on par

with Entrustment's while that foe has quicker early pace numbers. Shortening up

to 1 1/8 miles from the 1 1/4 miles of the American Oaks should help Entrustment

as well, and she is my pick at 3-to-5 or better. I'd need 2-to-1 on Celestial

Kitten.