Indiana Grand Circles & Squares Analysis for May 19

Race 7 – Swifty Sired Fillies S.

#9 HUNGARIAN PRINCESS is a legit favorite this afternoon supported by OptixPLOT and GRID. Starting with the Plot, she is positioned as a large Square in Quad I, with a tactical speed advantage, along with the pace advantage in a “Sun” Contention and lower SpeedRate. Looking at her Past 3 Runlines, she holds an OptixFIG advantage (also shown in the V-Bar Graph above the Plot) with numbers above today’s OptixFIGRANGE, as well as the B OptixGRADE at the stakes level. She holds form making her second start of the cycle coming off the WIDE trip and B- OptixGRADE against open company allowance fillies on May 3.

With that lower SpeedRate, #3 STARLET EXPRESS might not be able to hold off Hungarian Princess; however, she could hold position for a minor share. As shown on the Past 3 Runlines, she has progression with each start and improvement in OptixFIG this season when facing older fillies and mares in the allowance condition. #7 PEARL TIARA holds a similar running style to Hungarian Princess, though lacks an advantage over that rival here as she returns from the layoff. Her races from last season, including those in state-bred stakes competition, fit at this level.

Race 8 – Sagamore Sired S.

The Sagamore Sired S. is more contentious than the Swifty Sired at first glance at the OptixPLOT, and we'll start the handicapping by assessing the morning-line favorites. #6 DILLSBORO DEVIL will make his first start of the season here, and while his Grades (class) and OptixFIG (speed) from last season stack up on RANGE, he lacks a pace advantage as a Circle with Contention (Sun) in Quad I. While capable to win and even improve coming back as a three-year-old, the value is lacking in the role as a 9-5 favorite here and creates value elsewhere.

Keeping with Quad I, #2 BETSDOWNLETSRIDE offers value as a Square in Quad I. That position presents a pace advantage, as well as improvement available in his form cycle from the OptixNOTES in the Past 3 Runlines making the second start off the layoff here. Going back to last season, his OptixFIG stack up in RANGE with class supported with the B/B- OptixGRADES. He is capable to improve based on the PREP? Projection returning from the layoff on April 21, those factors making him a contender at this level. #7 SKY JUDGE is in a similar position to Betsdownletsride on the Plot. His OptixFIG fit in Range, though he will be tested here in his stakes debut for class. The 12-1 morning line suggests a fair number, and the type of Plot position to present value in exotics.

#4 SUDDEN SHIFT is listed as the 2-1 second choice on the morning line and capable to find the right trip for his running style as a tracking Square in Quad II, though lacking a real edge in terms of a pace advantage. There are concerns as well with the morning line suggestion based on the Past 3 Runlines coming off a HARD effort in the allowance win just three weeks ago on April 27. Overall he is capable at this level; however, today he lacks value as a soft favorite.

#8 ROCKIN ALL NIGHT holds a similar position on Standard (current form) to Sudden Shift and holds some hidden form to compete this afternoon. Going back to last season he recorded B- OptixGRADES in the state-bred stakes races, a grade slightly below a “contender” though one that can factor for a minor share. #3 MANUELITO takes up a similar position on the Plot and some subtle form in his stakes races last season as shown in the Past 3 Runlines. He is slightly below others in terms of that same “contender” status though also capable for a minor share a long odds.