Preakness Report

PREAKNESS REPORT

MAY 9, 2013

by James Scully

Orb launched his move on the far turn at Churchill Downs, rallying from 17th

to first by midstretch, and easily proved best by a 2 1/2-length margin in the

139th Kentucky Derby. Much is made of the 35-year Triple Crown drought, but

Derby winners often come right back to take the Preakness Stakes.

Since Affirmed captured the last Triple Crown in 1978, 12 of the 32 Derby

winners scored in the Preakness (Grindstone and Spend a Buck did not run). The

37.5 percent strike rate is significant, and the sample includes a number of

upset winners who, not surprisingly, failed at Pimlico. Given his quality, Orb

looks poised to string together back-to-back efforts over a two-week window

before facing the Triple Crown's greatest stumbling block, the 1 1/2-mile

Belmont Stakes.

Orb was the 5-1 Derby favorite and history suggests a much lower price in the

Preakness -- anyone expecting 2-1 or better will be sadly mistaken. The last

five horses to win the Derby as either the favorite or second choice were

hammered in Baltimore -- Big Brown (1-5), Street Sense (6-5), Barbaro (1-2),

Smarty Jones (3-5) and Fusaichi Pegasus (1-5) -- and the possibility remains for

Orb to be odds-on by Preakness post time.

He registered pedestrian BRIS Speed ratings of 86 and 89 for a maiden win in

late November and a season-opening allowance victory on January 26, but those

figures are no longer representative of the colt's abilities. His Speed numbers

increased in the Fountain of Youth (102) and Florida Derby (97), and the

Kentucky Derby represented further improvement, with Orb generating a 111 for

his fifth consecutive victory.

To put the 111 in perspective, Orb's performance has been equaled by only Big

Brown (who also earned a 111) since 1990. That's worth repeating: no horse since Unbridled has received a better Speed rating

for winning the Derby than Orb.

Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey operates differently than most high-profile

trainers nowadays, with little-to-no focus on Triple Crown events as he allows

plenty of time for development, and has stated repeatedly how surprised he was

to see Orb put it all together so soon. The rider situation is a perfect

illustration. Joel Rosario rode Orb in his first five starts, but he thought

McGaughey was going to run Orb in another allowance race after the colt's first

start this year and accepted the mount on Speak Logistics in the February 23

Fountain of Youth.

McGaughey changed course, opting for the Fountain of Youth, and Rosario

wasn't the only one surprised to see Orb in a Grade 2 stakes at that point in

his career. McGaughey was concerned himself that he might be rushing Orb too

much and was ready to back off and point toward the Travers in late August had

Orb lost the Fountain of Youth. That mentality is not employed by trainers like

Todd Pletcher, Bob Baffert, D. Wayne Lukas, Kenny McPeek, etc.

Rosario got the mount back when John Velazquez opted for Verrazano over Orb

and he delivered a picture-perfect ride in the Derby.

Derby runner-up Golden Soul and third-placer Revolutionary will both skip the

Preakness in favor of the Belmont Stakes, but Normandy Invasion (fourth), Mylute

(fifth), Oxbow (sixth), Will Take Charge (eighth), Itsmyluckyday (15th),

Goldencents (17th) and Vyjack (18th) are all expected to continue along the

Triple Crown path.

At least a couple of new faces are expected, including Departing. The

once-beaten gelding exits a sharp win in the Illinois Derby and has recorded

triple-digit Speed ratings in his last two outings.

I will preview the Preakness next week.