Road to the Triple Crown

ROAD TO THE TRIPLE CROWN

MARCH 23, 2005

by James Scully

A knee injury to Declan's Moon (Malibu Moon) left the California-based

three-year-old division wide open last week, but CONSOLIDATOR (Storm Cat)

stepped into the void with an outstanding performance in Saturday's San Felipe

S. (G2). He fooled observers willing to write him off after his seasonal bow, a

fourth-place finish in the seven-furlong San Vicente S. (G2) in mid-February,

but the chestnut was beaten only 2 1/2 lengths that afternoon and isn't a

one-turn horse. Stretching back to a route, Consolidator proved much the best in

the San Felipe S. (G2), drawing off to a 6 1/2-length score in the 1 1/16-mile

contest at 7-1 odds.

Storm Cat is long overdue for his

first Kentucky Derby (G1) winner. The 22-year-old stallion probably had his best

chance in 1994 with Tabasco Cat, who went on to capture the Preakness (G1) and

Belmont S. (G1) but caught a sloppy track that he didn't like at Churchill. Cat

Thief also came close, finishing third by a length in the 1999 Derby before

winning the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) later that season. Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas,

who helped orchestrate a fantastic story when sending out the first Kentucky Derby

winner (Grindstone) for the late William T. Young Jr. in 1996, is in position to

provide the first Derby winner for the legendary Overbrook Farm stallion with

Consolidator.

Storm Cat also has SWEET CATOMINE in contention this year.

After nine career starts, Consolidator is 1-for-6 in sprints with a top BRIS

Speed rating of 95. Throw out those one-turn races. He easily captured the

Breeders' Futurity (G1) when making his two-turn bow last October and wrapped up

his two-year-old campaign with a close fourth, following a troubled trip, in the

Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). Consolidator has never earned a Speed rating lower

than 101 in a route, receiving a 103 for his dominant San Felipe performance.

Saturday's race came over a speed-friendly Santa Anita track, but runner-up

GIACOMO (Holy Bull) and third-place finisher DON'T GET MAD (Stephen Got Even)

weren't going to catch Consolidator regardless. They're both nice colts who

could continue to improve, but they're not in the same class of the winner right

now. Fourth-place finisher WILKO (Awesome Again) exited the race with a

quarter-crack problem and health looks like a major issue. GOLDEN SHINE (Touch

Gold) didn't fire at all, and ROMAN RULER (Fusaichi Pegasus) is out of the

Kentucky Derby picture following his last-place finish, according to trainer Bob

Baffert.

Consolidator, who could easily catch another hard surface on May 7, has

plenty going for him. A Grade 1 winner at two, he owns the pedigree for 10

furlongs and delivered the kind of performance we needed to see this

year in the San Felipe. His next start comes in the April 16 Blue Grass S. (G1).

The Rebel S. (G3) generated the most fanfare last weekend and featured a

thrilling finish between GREATER GOOD (Intidab) and ROCKPORT HARBOR (Unbridled's

Song). The biggest surprise came from AFLEET ALEX (Northern Afleet), who

struggled home in last at 3-5 and reportedly suffered from a lung infection.

Greater Good earned his third straight stakes win and has won all four stakes

attempts around two turns. After sitting close to a moderate opening

quarter-mile in the Rebel, he dropped back and then offered his customary late

kick into the stretch, collaring Rockport Harbor inside the final sixteenth of

mile. The runner-up responded when challenged, but Greater Good eventually wore

down his rival to win by a half-length. The Bob Holthus trainee earned his first

triple-digit Speed rating, a 101, for the 1 1/16-mile Rebel.

His dam is by Travers S. (G1) winner and Kentucky Derby runner-up General

Assembly, and Greater Good hasn't shown any stamina limitations so far. The top

side of his pedigree is far less promising for the Kentucky Derby. Sire Intidab

was better at shorter distances and is by the noted speed influence Phone Trick.

Greater Good probably hasn't gotten the credit he deserves. He's

extremely honest with a winning attitude, but 10 furlongs remains a difficult

proposition for the late runner.

Rockport Harbor broke slowly and dropped to the back of the pack a few jumps

out of the gate in the Rebel. The gray colt swung to the outside, quickly

circled the field while four-wide into the first turn and was keen to run early

while under stout restraint from Stewart Elliott entering the backstretch.

Elliott couldn't slow down as Rockport Harbor picked up the pace on a clear

lead, and the John Servis charge threatened to run away with it midway on the

far turn as Afleet Alex began to falter.

Despite tiring a little late, Rockport Harbor ran great off the lengthy

layoff and showed no symptoms from a couple of recent foot problems. Servis was

ecstatic afterward, predicting plenty of improvement off this performance, and

Rockport Harbor may lead wire to wire in the April 16 Arkansas Derby (G2).

However, there's a lot of difference between nine and 10 furlongs. Sire Unbridled's Song could produce a classic winner if coupled with the right mare,

but Rockport Harbor's dam side is speed oriented and he's been strictly a

need-the-lead type so far. He doesn't look like a 1 1/4-mile horse.

Afleet Alex didn't record his first workout until February 16 and has shown

up in front wraps for both starts this year after never wearing them during his two-year-old

season. His

first race, an easy win in the six-furlong Mountain Valley S., gave no cause for

alarm two weeks earlier, but Saturday's Rebel sent the red flags up. Afleet Alex

is 0-for-2 around two turns, 0-for-3 in races past seven furlongs and now

battling a lung problem with little more than a month remaining until the big

dance. All hope isn't lost yet for his supporters, but the Rebel couldn't have

been much more discouraging.

SUN KING (Charismatic) didn't face much competition and wound up on the lead

entering the first turn in Saturday's Tampa Bay Derby (G3). He went on to a 3

1/4-length score, his second straight easy win this year, and remains a leading Kentucky Derby contender for trainer Nick Zito. Like a top seed in the NCAA

tournament, Sun King has survived two opening round breezes and now advances to

face better competition in the Blue Grass. Coach Zito knows how to push the right

buttons, and Sun King, like a North Carolina or Illinois, has the talent to win

it all.

Saturday's Gotham S. (G3) produced a blanket finish with SURVIVALIST (Danzig),

who was making his stakes bow, getting to the wire first by three parts of a

length. A lengthy inquiry resulted the disqualification of second-place finisher PAVO (Marquetry), moving 6-5 favorite GALLOPING GROCER (A.P Jet) up to second

and NAUGHTY NEW YORKER (Quiet American) to the bronze position.

Survivalist, who was coming off a 5 3/4-length defeat to Sun King at

Gulfstream, benefited from a blistering pace up front and didn't come home that

quickly as the front runners tired badly in the stretch, earning only a 87 Late

Pace rating. The Shug McGaughey runner still got it done and the promising

youngster owns plenty of room for improvement with a nice pedigree for route

distances. He's expected to try two turns for the first time in the April 9 Wood

Memorial (G1).

The Lane's End S. (G2) takes center stage this weekend on Saturday at Turfway

Park. The probables include San Rafael S. (G2) winner SPANISH CHESTNUT (Horse

Chestnut [SAf]), Sam F. Davis S. hero ANDROMEDA'S HERO (Fusaichi Pegasus) and

the unbeaten MAYAN KING (Stephen Got Even).