Road to the Triple Crown

ROAD TO THE TRIPLE CROWN

APRIL 27, 2005

by James Scully

COIN SILVER (Anees) earned a berth in the Kentucky Derby (G1)

with a 3 1/2-length victory in Saturday's Lexington S. (G2). The late-blooming

colt gives Todd Pletcher a third starter, joining BANDINI (Fusaichi Pegasus) and

FLOWER ALLEY (Distorted Humor) among the probables for the May 7 classic.

Coin Silver finished fourth in his racing debut at Belmont Park last July and

didn't re-appear until February at Gulfstream Park, finishing second in a 7

1/2-furlong event. He broke his maiden going 1 1/8 miles in his third career

race on March 5 and followed it with a close third in a nine-furlong allowance

in early April. The dark bay colt made his stakes bow in the 1 1/16-mile

Lexington and after being reluctant to load, hit the side of the gate at the

start and then bumped repeatedly with another rival approaching the first turn.

He settled into a good stalking trip down the backstretch under Javier

Castellano and began to advance entering the far turn, but Coin Silver lacked

running room leaving the bend, forcing Castellano to swing four wide into the

stretch. The determined colt charged to the lead and drew off down the lane,

earning a 108 BRIS Speed rating for his stellar performance.

Many will dismiss his effort due to the sloppy track and competition, but

Coin Silver established himself as a dangerous prospect for the Kentucky Derby.

As evidenced by recent Kentucky Derby winners Charismatic and War Emblem, a

rapidly improving three-year-old can come out of practically nowhere at this

time of year and carry his form forward at Churchill Downs. Coin Silver has

shown that he relishes a route of ground and owns century-topping Speed figures

from his last two starts. He displayed a new dimension on Saturday, rating off

the pace after racing on the front end in his previous efforts this year.

Pletcher, who earned his first Eclipse Award in 2004, excels in many

different categories but hasn't brought strong contenders to the Kentucky Derby

before. Eight of his nine previous Kentucky Derby starters -- Trippi, More Than

Ready, Impeachment, Graeme Hall, Balto Star, Wild Horses, Limehouse (Grand Slam) and

Pollard's Vision (Carson City) -- were better suited to distances of nine furlongs or less.

The lone exception, Invisible Ink (Thunder Gulch), owned a more favorable

pedigree for classic distances and overachieved greatly for Pletcher when second

at 55-1 to Monarchos in 2001.

The 37-year-old conditioner has greatly improved his hand in 2005. Bandini is

from the first crop of the 2000 Derby winner, Fusaichi Pegasus. Flower Alley's

sire, Distorted Humor, produced dual classic winner Funny Cide in his first

crop. Coin Silver receives plenty of endurance from both sides of his pedigree.

Pletcher is going to have an impact upon this year's race.

Bandini and Coin Silver both displayed tremendous improvement in their final

prep races. Flower Alley, who broke through with a victory in the Lane's End S.

(G2) two back, exits a good second to AFLEET ALEX (Northern Afleet) in the

Arkansas Derby (G2). All three are coming to hand at the right time of the year

and each may continue to improve with a career best in Louisville, Kentucky.

The Lexington could produce a couple of other Derby starters in SORT IT OUT

(Out of Place) and GOING WILD (Golden Missile). Sort It Out offered a good run

for second on Saturday, and the one-paced grinder has shown much more in his

last two starts for trainer Bob Baffert since finishing eighth in the Louisiana

Derby (G2) in mid-March. Going Wild is headed in the opposite direction. Owners

Bob and Beverly Lewis already have CONSOLIDATOR (Storm Cat) going to the

Kentucky Derby, so there's no need to potentially ruin a nice three-year-old

like Going Wild. The only positive to be gained from an appearance in the

Kentucky Derby would be exiting the race uninjured.

A wire-to-wire winner in his first two starts this year, Going Wild won't be

able to outrun the other speed in the Kentucky Derby. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas

wants to blame the colt's last two performances on the tracks (Aqueduct and

Keeneland), but it wasn't the surfaces which led to Going Wild's failures. He dropped back suddenly

upon reaching the far turn in both races, finishing 41 lengths up the track in

the Wood Memorial (G1) and 16 1/4 lengths back in the Lexington, and the

$650,000 purchase is clearly going the wrong way fast. Instead of getting the

time off he appears to sorely need, Going Wild will return two weeks later as an

insignificant factor who could potentially cause problems for others in a

20-horse field.

With less than two weeks remaining, the Kentucky Derby favorites are easy to

identify. BELLAMY ROAD (Concerto), Afleet Alex and Bandini look like the top

three betting choices, respectively, and could be the only contestants at less

than 10-1. Chalk players have their trifecta box.

Pace remains the wildcard. Even with the defection of Rockport

Harbor (Unbridled's Song), there appears to be plenty of speed lining up to face

Bellamy Road on paper. He remains a threat to turn any scenario on its head by

running away from his opponents again, but the possibility remains that

Bellamy Road could be softened up on the front end. The opposition can't allow

the favorite to lope along on an uncontested advantage similar to the Wood

Memorial.

Early runners HIGH LIMIT (Maria's Mon), BUZZARDS BAY (Marco Bay), Going Wild

and Consolidator are the top candidates to come out winging it from the start,

but classy sophomores like GREELEY'S GALAXY (Mr. Greeley) and HIGH FLY (Atticus),

whose connections would definitely prefer to see them rating in the early stages, are

both very quick and could prove difficult to restrain if keen in the opening

furlongs.

Stalkers and one-run closers will have the advantage.

Next week will feature a final preview of the Kentucky Derby.